Does India Need Emergency to Fight Covid-19? Rising Over Hope & Prayer, it's Time for Radical Change

One hundred days of coronavirus have been no short of devastating for human history. Now we have 1.6 million confirmed cases, and the death toll has reached 100,000 mark. We are not sure where we are headed, with no cure in sight, and known to be ten times more lethal than influenza as per WHO.

Let us look at the progression of covid-19:

First response after going through the above statistics — “Exponential’. What we have to see carefully is the death rate. Globally, the death rate is 6.1 %, and for India, the death rate is a little above 3% and for Maharashtra, it is above 7%.

We need to be realistic of how long we can hold the fort knowing well that the number of cases and the death rate has gone up drastically over the past weeks.

In the given circumstances, no scientist will claim what is working and what is not as the data and timelines are not enough to ascertain the impact of either lockdown or testing. But for the time being, coronavirus appears to be defeating our systems, science, and strategy.

I would advise people at responsible positions not to make statements like ‘infection rates in India are low’ or ‘Immunity is high in Indians’ etc. As such, statements are giving false hopes and more confidence to people to take this virus for granted, assuming they will not be infected and thus encouraging irresponsible behaviour and weakening the efforts of the prime minister.

Time for Stimulus or Systemic Change?

While COVID cases are below the global threshold in India, but the Indian economy is already showing extreme symptoms and is on the ventilator! Well, this COVID is impacting every family. Yes, by and large, people accepted to stay put at home and follow the lockdown.

But, the impact on reduced earnings has impacted 100% of the families. India, being a lower-middle-income country, will certainly not take this one easy. While the country is talking about unemployment rates, it should now talk about ‘closure rate,’ i.e., corporates closing down.

Despite the call from the government not to layoff employees or do pay cuts, for sure, it is going to happen. We must realise that companies like governments' cannot have a ‘fiscal deficit.’ They can neither ‘print notes to run their operations’. Their income has been severely impacted, which they need to cater to their expenses.

More so, for start-ups, because they are ‘investment & expense’ driven. So, indeed, the ‘start-up community’ faces a bleak future.

International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that 400 million people will go below the poverty line. Add to the existing BPL population of about 200 million, and we are staring at 600 million people or almost half of the Indian population below the poverty line.

Indeed, the number of ‘working poor’ will jump drastically due to salary cuts — this is one significant fallout of the pandemic and a formidable challenge to address. It will also test the forbearance limit of 600 million vulnerable populations, and if meeting their daily needs becomes a challenge, then, what follows, would be a hysteria. Crimes and social unrest will increase.

If we go by ILO estimates, India might be back to the ’80s if not ’70s, and these are unprecedented times and need unprecedented interventions. Stimulus in bits and bytes will not help; it requires a systemic change.

In medicine, if you treat the patient with this approach (in steps), it goes into a condition that only a post-mortem is needed. So far, the government’s interventions on the economic front have not been enough, be it the prolonged slowdown since 2019 or since the lockdown, which in all likelihood will be staggered and extended given the current situation.

Let us not forget that we are not like the US, which can print dollars at the global expense and fund its slowdown, and also, the rupee is trading at its weakest point and can become weaker!! So, what steps we must take?

ZERO Quarter: It is time to declare April-June as ‘Zero Quarter,’ which means no taxes and no compliance for everyone. We need tangible and intangible benefits to keep the confidence and morale high.

It is time to seek Rs 5 lakh crore from RBI reserves, and seek or confiscate 75% of cash of every religious trust operating in India.

Spend this money for funding the poor and working poor with ‘COVID Pension’ of Rs 5,000 per month per poor family and those who get ‘laid-off’ for the next six months and this must utilise the MNAREGA funds. Also, seek tax-free donations from HNIs, NRIs, and corporates for COVID FUND to invest in rebuilding the country.

If need be, declare an emergency. Else, we will continue to plead and request to no avail. Such times call for extreme measures without bothering about the opinion of the opposition or intellectuals.

Remember, if families slide into poverty, companies fail, governments will fall. There is a limit to which the government can keep asking its citizens to bear the pain and give. It’s time for the government to save and serve everyone!

This is the test of a strong government and exemplary leadership to make tough decisions without a blink, to show its competence and keep its credibility.

Long term planning: Let’s keep in mind that the global supply chains will not be the same after COVID, and this is a signal that globalisation is nearing its end for essential supplies at least. China, India and the US will feel the most significant impact.

UN, WHO, and other multi-lateral bodies are messengers and not more. Every country will have to build its ecosystem and be self-sufficient.

Time to think an alternative currency to stop the hegemony of the US dollar and its influence on the multi-lateral bodies. 78 Low and LMIC countries should come together to form a new group D-78 to address issues of social security, growth, development, common currency, and technology adoption, and India should take a stewardship role in this.

Sandwiched between an ally who is a bully, neighbours who harbour expansionist plans, and terrorist pathways, India needs to factor this reality in its foreign policy and national security planning. A mix of strong and advanced nuclear deterrent and cyberwarfare capabilities is important.

We know that big corporation are big contributors to election campaigns, and they extract their share later, and the segment which is left out are the farmers and MSMEs.

The government will have to ensure that the economy is built on the 'Distributed Growth Model' on the two key drivers of the ‘expenditure and income economy’ – farmers and MSMEs.

If one looks carefully, COVID has devastated global financial hubs the most. Time to think about not focusing on mega metros but distributed financial centers across the nation. Anything else will broaden the divide and enhance the risk. It is time to go back to the RSS chief’s annual address in 2016, wherein he stressed that India needs its indigenous model. It seems, his timely message was not actioned upon. We need to build an indigenous economic model for India.

As we hit the inflection point for COVID, the winner becomes obvious between: Human vs Nature, Science vs Beliefs, Power & Might, Right & Wrong, Prevention & Cure, Rights & Duties, Kriya & Karma, Religion & Dharma, Doing right & Doing rightly, Processes vs Outcomes, Politics & Governance & Visible vs Invisible, time to take a step back and introspect. The things which matter appear far more clear and meaningful than ever before!

In such a scenario, the planning has to do with all scenarios in mind and that, hope, prayer, and optimism cannot substitute a well-executed strategy. For India, it’s a massive opportunity for radical change; it’s not just about a stimulus but It’s time for a systemic change.

(Rajendra Pratap Gupta is a leading public policy expert, and author of ‘Your Degree is not Enough.’ He tweets @rajendragupta. Views expressed are personal.)