The RJD could be the single largest party and the RJD-Congress-Left alliance could form the next government in Bihar, exit poll data released on Saturday showed. Some pollsters, like Today’s Chanakya, have predicted RJD storming into power, while others like ABP Cvoter and TV9 Bharatvarsh predicted a tighter contest with the RJD+ having the edge over JD(U)+.
The ABP News CVoter exit poll shows the RJD+ getting between 108-131 seats, whereas JD(U)+ is expected to get between 104-128. Similarly, Times Now Cvoter has given RJD+ 120 seats and the JD(U) 116.
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has given the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (MGB) between 139 and 161 seats, the NDA 69 to 91 seats, and Chirag Paswan’s LJP between three and five seats.
Dainik Bhaskar has given the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (MGB) between 120-127 seats and the NDA only 71-81. Interestingly, it has also estimated ‘Others’, including LJP, getting between 12-23 seats. A significant number of seats for Paswan’s party, since he had fielded candidates against JD(U) in every seat apart from attacking Chief Minister Nitish Kumar viciously throughout the campaign, could spell trouble for NDA+.
Among other poll trends, TV9 Bharatvarsh has again suggested a tight contest between MGB and NDA, with RJD+ at 115-125 having a slight advantage over JD(U)+ at 110-120. Republic Man ki Baat has suggested MGB bagging between 118-138 seats and NDA bagging close to 91-117.
Today’s Chanakya has predicted a landslide victory for RJD+. The exit polls have forecast RJD-Congress bagging 180 ± 11 seats whereas JD(U)-BJP+ is expected to be restricted to just 55 ± 11 seats. This mammoth difference between the seats makes sense when one looks at the huge difference in the estimated voter percentages of the two alliances.
The RJD+ is expected to get around 44% ± 3% votes and JD(U)+ is estimated to bag only 34% ± 3% votes. Others, including alliances headed by Upendra Khushwaha, Pappu Yadav and other smaller parties and independents, are estimated to get only 22% ± 3% votes.
However, according to the ABP Cvoter poll, there is very little difference between the two alliances in terms of vote percentage – with NDA getting 37.7% and MGB estimated to get 36.3%. Interestingly LJP, which is BJP’s ally at the centre, but spent all its energy during polls attacking Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, expected to get around 8.5% votes according to the ABP Cvoter survey.
Party wise, ABP Covoter has given the JD(U) between 38-46 seats, BJP 66 seats and others between 0-8 seats. Timesnow poll gives RJD 85 seats, Congress 25 and the Left 10 seats; to JD(U) it gives 42 seats, BJP 70 seats, HAM(S) 2 and VIP 2.
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