India's Rating Upgrade Possible In Next 24 Months If Fiscal Deficit Falls To 4%: S&P

A sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down fiscal deficit to 4 per cent of GDP, an S&P Global Ratings official said on Wednesday.

Also Read: Fitch Raises India’s Growth Estimates For FY25 To 7.2%

S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for upgrade would be general government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

“If the central government is able to bring down fiscal deficit to 4 per cent of the GDP, we will consider a rating upgrade over the next 24 months,” Phua said.

The central government estimates to bring down fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal, from 5.63 per cent in 2023-24.

As per the fiscal consolidation roadmap, the deficit — the difference between government expenditure and revenue — will be brought down to 4.5 per cent by 2025-26.

The US-based rating agency had in May upgraded outlook for India to positive, from stable, while retaining the rating at ’BBB-’.

Phua further said the Indian economy has clocked an average of 8 per cent growth in the last three years, driven by domestic consumption and infrastructure investment that has made real difference on the ground.

“We see the medium-term growth potential for India at 7 per cent,” Phua said.

If the infrastructure bottlenecks are removed, that will lead to 8 per cent growth potential without the risk of overheating, he added.

S&P estimates India’s economic growth at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal, lower than 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal.

S&P Global Ratings Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific, Louis Kuijs said India is the fastest growing economy in the Asia region.

The impact of Covid on Asian economies are behind us and growth is in the process of picking up steam, he said.

“We did notice that Covid had a large impact on growth trajectories, especially in countries like India… India is recouping some of the lost ground and is growing faster than we had expected four years ago,” Kuijs said.