When the last four seats in Jharkhand vote on April 24, all eyes will be on Dumka (ST) where the two biggest tribal leaders - Jharkhand Mukti Morcha chief Shibu Soren and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha Prajatantrik supremo Babu Lal Marandi - are locked in a pitched battle. The winner will not only represent Dumka in the Lok Sabha but also emerge as the tallest tribal leader in the state, and take the pole position in the run up to Assembly elections later in 2014.
The 70-year-old Soren, who led the agitation for a separate state of Jharkhand, has represented Dumka seven times and seems to have the edge with his son and Chief Minister Hemant Soren and several ministers camping in the constituency to ensure a victory yet again. But his chief opponent Babu Lal Marandi, too, is a Santhal and although he has come second best to Soren twice, he is going all out to dethrone Soren in his bastion.
Marandi, widely acknowledged as the best chief minister the state has seen since its formation in 2000, is banking on his clean image and the development work done during his tenure to romp home. After replacing him by Arjun Munda as the state CM, the BJP leadership completely ignored and sidelined him forcing him to quit the party and float JVMP, which is aiming to become the principal regional party in the state.
Despite being a seat which has been represented by Jharkhand's most famous politician, Dumka along with Godda and Rajmahal in the Santhal Parganas division is one of the most backward areas.
Three Jharkhand chief ministers - Shibu Soren, Hemant Soren and Marandi - are from Dumka but the constituency is yet to feature on the railway map of India. The main issues here are large scale migration in search of employment, no facility for technical and higher education, a complete absence of medical facilities, no electricity, poor condition of roads and liquor mafia.
Known as Dishom Guru (Great Leader) Shibu Soren is almost a cult figure in the region but the JMM is no longer the powerful party it was in the 1990s and early 21st century. A weak government, corruption, infighting and Shibu Soren's promotion of his son Hemant have weakened JMM in the last few years with many of his trusted aides leaving the party.
One of his closest aides Stephen Marandi is now with the JVMP and working hard to defeat the Dishom Guru. Another former JMM leader Hemlal Murmu is now contesting from Rajmahal on a BJP ticket, helped by dissident JMM leader Simon Marandi.
The loss of so many senior party leaders has made it very tough for the JMM chief even though the alliance with Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal has resulted in a rainbow coalition of tribals, backward castes particularly Yadavs, Muslims and some forward castes. Soren's fight against non-tribal moneylenders who exploited the poor and illiterate tribals in Santhal Parganas and other regions of the state is still a great magnate for his supporters.
Yet this formidable combination is negated by anti-incumbency and the highly unpopular and opportunistic government led by the JMM. Yet the party sounds confident of once again emerging victorious.
"The entire Santhal Parganas loves and respects Guruji. He is one of them and shares their happiness as well as sad moments. They will never ditch him. He has always fought elections from here and even after losing elections in 1984 and 1998, Guruji never preferred any other seat. His challengers are no match to him. People like Marandi cannot be trusted," JMM leader Supriyo Bhattacharya told IBNLive.
Marandi, who lost to Soren twice and defeated him once in the 1998 Lok Sabha election and his wife Rupi Soren Kisku in 1999 although as a BJP candidate, is focussing his campaign on development of Santhal Parganas.
Banking on tribals, Dalits, OBCs and Muslims, Marandi is confident of emerging as the winner after winning from Koderma in 2004 and 2009. He knows that Soren's loss will almost finish off JMM and leave JVMP as the torchbearer of tribals in the state, which can then hope to come to power in the Assembly elections later in the year.
Marandi is also hoping that BJP candidate Sunil Soren, who gave the JMM chief a major scare in 2009 before losing by 18,812 votes, will eat into Shibu Soren's vote bank and make things easier for him. Both Marandi and Sunil Soren learnt their political vocabulary from Shibu Soren as apart of the JMM's young brigade before falling out, and the success of either will surely bring an end to the JMM chief's long political career that saw his leading a successful agitation for the creation of a new state.
When results are declared on May 16, the Dumka verdict will also decide the political direction of Jharkhand. It will throw up just one winner and that winner will symbolise if the old tradition continues or a new chapter is written.
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