On August 16, as soon as the Election Commission announced the Haryana poll schedule, the state’s former finance minister and senior BJP leader Captain Abhimanyu took to X, quoting a couplet to “urge” cadre to give their best. “Waqt kam hai, jitna dum hai laga do, kuch ko mai jagaata hoon, kuch ko tum jagaa do” — the lines barely hid the restlessness in the Haryana BJP which is wary of a lax cadre response that cost the party dearly in the Lok Sabha election when the BJP’s tally was halved compared to its 2019 result.
Among many factors, the BJP’s internal findings indicated a demotivated cadre that either did not campaign as planned or did it half-heartedly after realising that tickets were being dished out to turncoats like Naveen Jindal, Ashok Tanwar or Ranjit Singh.
For now, there are two major reasons — 10 years of anti-incumbency and simmering Jat anger — that may put chief minister Nayab Singh Saini’s BJP at a disadvantage.
JAT FAVOURITES JJP & INLD IN LIMBO
Both the Jat favourites — Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and Devi Lal’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) — are in tatters, which is not good news for the BJP. Now, there is very little chance of the community’s votes splitting and are likely to go en bloc to Bhupinder Hooda’s Congress.
As of now, seven of 10 JJP MLAs have quit the party. As soon as EC announced the poll dates, the JJP received four back-to-back resignations. MLAs like Anoop Dhanak, Ramniwas Surjakhera, Jogi Ram Sihag, Ram Kumar Gautam, Ishwar Singh, Ram Karan Kala and Devender Babli have either resigned or distanced themselves from the party that shot to prominence last election. Now, JJP is all but three MLAs, including chief Dushyant Chautala and his mother Naina Chautala.
On the other hand, the original Jat party of Haryana — INLD — has been in a political coma ever since Dushyant Chautala split the party and created JJP. The INLD, which was founded by former deputy prime minister and Jat stalwart late Devi Lal, is now led by 89-year-old Om Prakash Chautala. INLD’s political fortunes have been declining ever since the split. In the October 2019 assembly polls, both the parties contested separately. The INLD could then win just one seat — Ellenabad — after contesting on 81 seats. Since then, the party has found it difficult to recuperate politically.
ALL ISN’T PERFECT IN CONGRESS
But to think that the Congress is in a perfect sweet electoral spot will be wrong. If Congress lost Naveen Jindal to the BJP during the Lok Sabha, it lost former Haryana minister Kiran Choudhry in June when she joined the BJP with her daughter Shruti and their supporters. Having spent 45 years in the Congress, Choudhry, who belongs to the Jat community, has been a strategic coup by the BJP to defuse the simmering Jat disenchantment. The BJP also seems to have learnt its lesson from the Lok Sabha polls and is sending Choudhry to Parliament’s Upper House instead of fielding her in the assembly election.
At a time when the Hoodas are trying to portray the BJP as anti-Haryana, Choudhry is undoing the damage for BJP. Choudhry, who belongs to the family of Chaudhary Bansi Lal who ran an alliance government in Haryana with the BJP, said: “We have old relations with the BJP and I was impressed with their policies. The BJP works in the state’s and nation’s interest…”
What also complicates the matter for the Congress is the cold war between two state leaders — Bhupinder Hooda and Kumari Selja. While Hooda is the former chief minister of the state and still holds massive sway over Jats, Selja is close to 10, Janpath. What may further hurt Congress in Haryana is that Selja — an AICC general secretary and MP from Hisar — has thrown her hat in the assembly election ring and challenged Hooda’s one-upmanship. “Yes, I am planning to contest the assembly election in Haryana this time. In fact, I have been preparing for it since even before the Lok Sabha election,” said the Gandhi loyalist.
BJP’s CHALLENGES
The factors, however, may not be enough to stop the Congress this time, given the BJP is also facing 10 years of anti-incumbency — something that forced it to replace Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as Haryana’s chief minister in March this year.
The fact that Saini went full throttle in announcing freebies targeting contractual workers, farmers and even journalists before the model code of conduct kicked in is seen to be an acknowledgement of the BJP being on thin ice in Haryana. What will also weigh on the BJP’s mind are the Punjabis in Haryana who constitute roughly 8 per cent of the state’s population. Many Hindus and Sikhs have families living in Punjab who still hold the three farm laws — which were eventually rolled back — against the BJP.
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