Gurdaspur: In less than 15 hours from now Punjab will see its first by-poll, in Gurdaspur, since February when the state voted Congress to power.
The by-poll will be a crucial test for all the big political parties. It will be the first test of Congress’s popularity after coming to power, of BJP government’s big GST tax reform and of AAP's prowess as the main opposition party in the state.
Above all, the Gurdaspur by-poll will give its winner a boost for the 2019 general Assembly polls. Two interesting battles are being fought in Gurdaspur.
This will be not only the first test for Congress after it came to power in March this year, it will also be the first test for BJP's GST rolled out on July 1.
For Congress, which has spent close to six months in power in the state, Gurdaspur by-poll will come as a reality check. For BJP, which is arguably feeling the heat of demonetisation and GST, Gurdaspur could be a signal of public sentiment towards its financial policies.
In a remarkably low key affair, in which not a single senior central party leader from any of the contesting parties has campaigned, both Congress and BJP have received flak.
Congress for "not fulfilling poll promises", as alleged by leaders like AAP's state president Bhagwant Mann, like the promised farmer loan waiver scheme.
And BJP has come under attack, from other contestants like Congress' state unit chief Sunil Jakhar, for introducing policies like "Demonetisation and GST [that] have broken the backbone of the common people."
For candidates, fight for political survival
Gurdaspur bypoll will also be a fight to political relevance between Congress' state unit chief Sunil Jakhar and BJP's Swaran Salaria.
Having contested and lost the 2014 general assembly polls and the 2017 assembly polls, Congress' state unit chief Sunil Jakhar is fighting for survival. Another loss could land a fatal blow to Jakhar's political career, and ensure a rejig in the party before 2019 general polls. Last minute road shows by Amrinder Singh is what Jakhar may be banking on.
Swaran Singh Salaria is also said to have invested a lot of time and resources to fight the Gurdaspur polls. According to one news report, he was close to getting the party ticket from Gurdaspur till the high-command decided in favour of Vinod Khanna at the last minute. BJP's Salaria may be counting Gurdaspur's Hindu majority voters continuing to be loyal to BJP.
For AAP's candidate Suresh Khajuria, a retired Major General, there isn't much to lose except the prospect of a flourishing political career. The first time assembly candidate, Khajuria is banking on the votes of 1.23 lakh ex-servicemen and on a general dissatisfaction over pensions, that the Chief Minister Amrinder Singh promised, but as Khajuria claims, wasn't delivered to the intended beneficiaries.
Finally, this poll will also be a test of SAD-BJP alliance. In Gurdaspur, BJP has given over its entire poll management to SAD. If the alliance fares badly in Gurdaspur, as it did in the assembly polls, it could come under serious pressure. On the counting day - October 15, we will know.
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