Ghazipur Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. It comprises the following assembly segments: Jakhanian (SBSP), Saidpur (SP), Ghazipur Sadar (SP), Jangipur (SP) and Zamania (SP). Voting for Ghazipur Lok Sabha seat will take place in the final phase of polls on June 1 while the counting of votes will take place on June 4.
Current MP: Afzal Ansari (BSP)
Top Contenders: Afzal Ansari (SP), Paras Nath Rai (BJP), Umesh Singh (BSP)
Political Dynamics
Samajwadi Party in the Lead, Thanks to Caste
In 2019, the SP and BSP were contesting the Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh as part of an alliance. Now, the BSP is out of the picture, and has been replaced by the Congress. Not only is the BSP out of the picture, but its sitting MP, Afzal Ansari is now contesting the election from Ghazipur on a Samajwadi ticket.
In 2019, Afzal Ansari defeated senior BJP leader and incumbent MP Manoj Sinha by over 1.19 lakh votes. The Muslim-Yadav-Dalit combine made for an easy contest as far as Afzal Ansari was concerned. Five years since, not much has changed on the ground in terms of caste arithmetic, which remains tough for the BJP to crack.
Yadavs, the largest voting bloc here and numbering close to 4 lakhs are a dedicated vote bank for the Samajwadi Party. Add to that, there are about 2 lakh Muslims here. This alone provides the SP with a solid support base of close to 6 lakh voters.
Besides, Afzal Ansari is a big leader, and it would not be an overstatement to call him a strongman of sorts. He also happens to be the brother of gangster Mukhtar Ansari, who died recently. While he has the entire SP machinery here working overtime to canvass votes, there is also chatter of the BSP cadre working in his favour. This, despite Mayawati fielding Umesh Singh from Ghazipur on a BSP ticket.
The Samajwadi Party is also expected to get a considerable chunk of the youth vote, since this demographic is dissatisfied with the Modi government’s performance on the job front and the inability of BJP governments at both the Centre and State to prevent repeated exam paper leaks.
Not only is the SP relying on the Muslim-Yadav vote bank, whose support it is assured of, but is also trying to make inroads among the Dalits. There are approximately 3.8 lakh Dalit voters in this constituency. The fight is also on for getting considerable votes from the Binds, Bhumihars, Rajputs and other smaller castes and communities. Overall, this paints a rosy picture for the Samajwadi Party.
The SP is also expected to gain owing to a sense of fatigue setting in among voters. There are several local issues, which although were not very palpable in 2019, are now beginning to emerge on the horizon. There is pent up disappointment against the local administration and anger over the lack of proper services for the people. Although this anger is not directed at either Modi or Yogi, the BJP can expect a degree of negative impact. This is because there is no clear distinction between the administration per se, and the government.
There is a degree of uncertainty as well. In 2019, the SP and BSP had proved to be a formidable alliance here in Ghazipur. This time, the Congress is fighting the election alongside the Samajwadi Party. However, Congress does not have much presence or influence here. As such, Afzal Ansari has quite a task on is hands, and is expected to harness all his influence to win the election.
Meanwhile, Afzal Ansari’s candidature itself hangs in the balance. Ansari faces a four-year sentence for his involvement in gangster activities. Hearing for the same is ongoing in the Allahabad High Court, and the Supreme Court has stipulated that the HC decides on the stay application of Ansari by June 30. Chances are that the High Court’s verdict could come before polling takes place, which would essentially spill water over Ansari’s prospects if the stay were not granted.
BJP No Lightweight Either
The Samajwadi Party may have the lead, but that in no way means that the BJP can written off as a serious contender in Ghazipur. The elections of 2014 and 2019 have shown that the saffron party has a dedicated support base of about 4 lakh voters here. In 2014, the BJP got 3.06 lakh seats and won, while in 2019, despite getting 4.46 lakh votes, lost out to the SP-BSP alliance.
If the SP is relying on the Yadav-Muslim combine, the BJP is hopeful that the other castes – Binds, Bhumihars, Rajputs, Baniyas, among others will support its candidate Paras Nath Rai.
Speaking of the BJP’s candidate, Paras Nath Rai is not a well-known face in Ghazipur, and in many ways, has ventured into untested waters. In 2019, a leader of Manoj Sinha’s stature was defeated by Afzal Ansari. Suffice to say, the fight is extremely tough for Paras Rai as well. The BJP, as has become its custom now, is relying disproportionately on the Modi and Yogi factor.
What could work in the BJP’s benefit is that Ghazipur has seen significant developmental activities since 2014. New infrastructure and institutions have come up, and development is visible to the people of this constituency. Many voters say that those who deliver development will get their support.
Despite the INDI alliance localising the election in Ghazipur, the voters have not forgotten the work which has been done by the Modi and Yogi governments so far. Besides, there is no anger against either PM Modi or CM Yogi. The BJP’s biggest drawback is that it has no local leaders worth their name who can canvass votes or bring their own support bases to the BJP’s consolidated kitty. Also, the saffron party does not have a single MLA among the assembly segments of Ghazipur. This, at a time when the Samajwadi Party’s MLAs are actively campaigning for Afzal Ansari.
The momentum of the BJP campaign is expected to pick pace after PM Modi addresses a rally in Ghazipur on 25th May. There could be a considerable consolidation of votes in favour of the BJP. However, PM Modi had also campaigned here in 2019, and the BJP ultimately lost the seat to Afzal Ansari.
The defining feature of the election in Ghazipur could well be the “labhaartis” and women. Ground inputs suggest that there are a significant number of beneficiaries of Modi government’s biggest flagship schemes, many of whom are expected to vote for the BJP. Besides, a larger trend being seen in UP is that of women voters favouring the BJP overwhelmingly. Together, these two blocs of voters could help the BJP’s break SP’s caste advantage.
Key Issues
Paper Leak
There are not many options for employment in Ghazipur and people depend on government services for their employment. However, issues of paper leak in the UPPSC have angered the people. Students are incensed and are calling for a retake of the RO and ARO exams that was held on February 11th. The controversy erupted in an exam centre at SMN Inter College in the Muhammadabad area of Ghazipur. Students protested against the examination centre as papers with their seals broken were brought to the examination hall. Students have also alleged that there were no invigilators present even after the exams started raising suspicion. The issue spread like wildfire across the state and has turned into a major election campaign for the opposition.
Unemployment and Emigration
Unemployment is a major issue in Ghazipur, the region is bereft of big industries, and even those that do exist have failed to cater to the rising employment needs of the population. Agriculture in the region is peppered with several issues which does not make it desirable for the youth who are aiming for a better standard of living for themselves. As a result, people move out towards urban centres in the state or towards Maharashtra and Gujarat to seek better employment opportunities.
Civic Infrastructure
The civic infrastructure in the region is under distress. While road upgradation has taken place in the urban centre’s there is a lack of all-weather roads in the rural areas, making intra-connectivity a major issue. Moreover, inadequate sewage infrastructure, streetlights, congestion and encroachment in the urban centre are major issues for the residents.
Health Infrastructure
While health infrastructure is available in Ghazipur, its management has let the people down. Despite having a medical college in the region, healthcare centres are often being run without the presence of a doctor or sometimes even a nurse. There is a major shortage of doctors and even with advanced equipment patients are referred to other hospitals which causes major inconvenience to the people. Moreover, there is a in issue of doctors giving more time to their private practice which overlaps on their time that they have to spend at the public health clinics.
Educational Infrastructure
There are many colleges in Ghazipur providing higher education, but none are up to standard. Students have complained about the regular absence of professors. Classes are not taken on time and students have rued about the lack of infrastructure at colleges. As a result, many students pursuing higher education move to Delhi, Varanasi, Allahabad or Kanpur for better educational institutes in these regions.
Welfare Schemes
Welfare schemes will play a big role in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. There is widespread implementation of PM Awas Yojana and the CM Samuhik Vivah Yojana. In January this year it was reported those who had applied for the mass marriage scheme will be able to avail it on January 31st. This has come as a massive relief for poor and needy parents of Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe, Other Backward Class, Minority Category and General Category. 211 couples tied the knot at the event.
Infrastructure Development
Medical College
In 2021, PM Modi inaugurated 9 medical colleges in Uttar Pradesh. These colleges were constructed at a cost of Rs. 2329 Crore. The medical college in Ghazipur was named after Maharishi Vishwamitra.
Purvanchal Expressway
It is a 341 km long expressway which will pass through 9 districts of Lucknow, Barabanki, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Amethi, Sultanpur, Azamgarh, Mau and Ghazipur. Purvanchal Expressway will start from Chandsarai village on Lucknow Sultanpur Highway and end at Haldaria village in Ghazipur district. It is being built at a cost of Rs. 22,494 Crore.
Railway Infrastructure
The provision of passenger amenities at various stations, augmentation and upgradation of stations like Ghazipur City, Sadat, Dullahapur, Syedpur, and Aunrihar, the provision of a train display board, GPS based digital clock and auto announcement system at Mahpur and Nardganj stations, and the construction of various foot over bridges at different stations. The constituency also saw ongoing works such as the provision of FOB at Sadat and station approach road on the other side of Dullahapur station, raising and extension of platform no. 1 at Ankushpur and Taroon station, improvement of platform no. 1 & 2 and provision of a lift at Ghazipur City, augmentation and upgradation of Ghazipur City, improvement of platform surface and provision of lean-to-shed with benches at various stations, extension of existing FOB at Zamania station, doubling of Aunrihar-Jaunpur and Ballia-Ghazipur City, and the construction of various ROB/RUBs in lieu of level crossings.
Amrit Bharat
Ghazipur City station is set for a makeover as it is selected in the centre’s Amrit Bharat scheme which aims to develop railway stations on par with airports, improve passenger amenities and develop them into high volume cargo centres.
Ghazipur-Manjhi Ghat Greenfield Expressway Project
The project involves development of 118 km long greenfield expressway connecting Ghazipur and Manjhi Ghat bridge and construction of two-lane bridge adjacent to Jaiprabha Setu at Manjhi Ghat on the National Highway (NH)-31 in the state of Uttar Pradesh at an estimated cost of Rs 50,000 million.
Voter Demographics
Total Voters: 1867712
SC: 382,881 (20.5%)
ST: 13,074 (0.7%)
Geographical Composition
Urban Voters: 1,707,089 (91.4%)
Rural Voters: 160,623 (8.6%)
Religious Composition
Hindu: 89.4%
Muslim: 10.17%
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