Sri Lanka is going through an economic crisis. Russia and Ukraine are at each other’s throats. The NATO, European Union and the United States of America have their fair share of issues, domestically and internationally. The world is gearing up for another round of newer variants of coronavirus. And, in addition to all this, we have a political crisis in our backyard — Pakistan. Make no mistake, India is not insulated from this crisis. The easiest thing for the Pakistani Army would be to create a military problem to take away the attention away from the political crisis. Will General Bajwa do it, is the question. Leaving this question aside, let’s see how this crisis panned out.
Imran Khan’s Moves
Though he is the Prime Minister, Imran Khan like the Opposition leader Bilawal Bhutto has not spent much time in Pakistan. Much of his time has been spent in Britain. How then did Imran find himself in this predicament?
Anti-US rhetoric: Imran Khan’s anti-US rhetoric started when he went to the US asking for alms and didn’t get any, he was rather snubbed. To make matters worse, the new US government has refused to give him an audience, it has had enough of Pakistan as far as not doing enough against terrorism is concerned. The CIA in Islamabad has always maintained that Pakistan takes all the support in terms of money and military aid and yet when it comes to actionable and timely intelligence, Pakistan always falls short. Finding Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad is a case in point.
The Chinese hand: In the larger scheme of things, China, aspiring to be another superpower, has been meddling in the affairs of those states which were/are pro-US in the region. They use all kinds of moves to make this happen, namely money, power, bribes et al. Imran Khan may not need any money for a rainy day unlike his predecessors, but he certainly needs money to fight elections and to keep the party members on this side, because most of the polity in Pakistan is either corrupt or extremely corrupt. Most of them want to make hay while the sun shines. It is an open secret that Imran Khan pays large sums of money from party funds for the same.
Playing to the gallery: Due to continuous drone attacks in Pakistan, especially in the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area) region and a general dislike for the US among the Muslim population, most Pakistanis are against the United States of America. The question is, is Imran also against the United States of America? We doubt it very much. However, he may have developed a dislike when he was snubbed at the White House. Either way, for Imran to stay in power, he needs popular support and the only way you can get that popular support is by being vocally anti-USA. He couldn’t be vocally anti-USA earlier; however, with Chinese backing, he could now talk against drone attacks and such talks have undoubtedly made him hugely popular among the masses.
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Regime Change, an Age-old US Policy
Regime change is something the US has been practising for ages. Smaller countries that did not toe the line, like Cuba, Venezuela, Afghanistan etc., all witnessed a regime change. When the US throws words like ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ at you, run for cover. None of these countries eventually got either democracy or freedom. Emboldened by Chinese money power and to get even with the USA after the snubbing at the White House, Imran Khan started talking vocally against America, which started this political crisis in Pakistan.
Effecting a Regime Change in Pakistan
Pakistan’s political crisis started with certain PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) politicians switching sides to the Pakistan Peoples Party headed by Bilawal Bhutto. Bilawal does not have widespread support in Pakistan because people do not consider him a true Pakistani. He does not enjoy a great gift of gab, a prerequisite that every politician must have, especially a Pakistani politician. He has been riding on his grandfather’s and mother’s legacy to reach where he has reached. How do you effect a regime change in Pakistan? Very simple, pay out the democratically elected guys to join a party that does not enjoy a majority. This is the playbook that the CIA has used to make PTI politicians move over to the PPP. Some may have been intimidated by court cases. Some may have been honey-trapped as well. The CIA is completely adroit in such skills.
Travesty of Democracy
Whatever be the reason, the vote of no-confidence brought on the floor of the Pakistan Assembly was not in favour of Imran Khan. Democratic process demands that this no-confidence motion goes through, as specified by the law. The speaker of Pakistan, however, was on the side of Imran Khan; he quickly dissolved the Assembly and asked for re-election. Having played to the gallery, Imran Khan enjoys enormous popular support among the Awam of Pakistan. Imran knows it, Bilawal knows it, and so do the United States of America.
But the fact remains, it’s a travesty of democracy that a no-confidence motion was not allowed to go through. This shows how fickle is Pakistan’s sham of a democracy. Drawing a parallel with a no-confidence motion against India’s then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he lost by one vote, he took it in his stride, accepted it as part of democracy and moved on. India went through another election. Now you see the difference between a vibrant democracy vis-à-vis sham of a democracy that is Pakistan.
Military at the Helm, Repercussions for India
Pakistan’s military has been at the helm of the country many times. General Yahya Khan (under whom Pakistan suffered a humiliating defeat in 1971), General Zia-ul Haq (under whom Bhutto was hanged and Pakistan went on the path of Jihad), and most recently General Pervez Musharraf (under whom Pakistan suffered a humiliating defeat in Kargil), the military at the helm has never been good for India. Pakistani military’s raison d’etre is anti-India stance.
Therefore, why will an army at the helm want a thaw in ties with India? They will continue to foment trouble using Kashmir as the talking point. For a Pakistani population who lives in say Quetta or Karachi, what use is it to suffer economically and politically, fighting a lost battle called Kashmir? Yet if you talk to them (many are working as taxi drivers in other countries), they will tell you all about Kashmir and why they support it. Such is the penetration of the idea of Kashmir into the hearts and minds of the Pakistani people. Especially those who are uneducated.
Therefore, the military at the helm is not suitable for the region’s stability and, indeed, not ideal for India. The elected government too hasn’t taken giant strides towards making the relationship with India better for a simple reason: they need to keep playing the Kashmir card to remain in power.
What Can Pakistan Do
A simple solution to this complex problem is threefold:
1. Pakistan establishment need to drop their anti-India stance, look at India as a friend and not a foe and try to ride on the success of India.
2. For this to happen, they need to drop the Kashmir narrative and start working against poverty, ill-health and lack of education in their country. Towards this, they could get great help from India provided the relationship with India is thoroughly thought-out, and an environment of a ‘friendly state’ is created between both countries.
3. Their prime focus should be to stabilise the country on the path of progress and not on the way of hatred and divisive politics.
India is looking at Pakistan’s current economic and political crisis very carefully because it is in India’s interest that there exists a stable Pakistan. If Pakistan falls into a financial crisis as Sri Lanka did, we could be looking at a vast refugee crisis along India’s borders.
The author is Group Captain (retd), Fighter Pilot, MiG-21, Mirage-2000. He is DGCA-nominated Qualified Flying Instructor and Aircraft Accident Investigator. Vineet Maliakal is COO, AutoMicroUAS. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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