The last few month’s developments have left a distinct impression, even for its most bitter opponents, that the BJP has an unassailable lead over the Congress and the rest of the Opposition. The party looks too far ahead, and its rivals too demoralised to go into the 2024 general elections with any degree of competitive parity.
One may, at this point, cite an evergreen Aesop’s fable.
But it took an extremely lazy and complacent hare and an incredibly determined tortoise to spin a fable-maker’s imagination into a timeless tale.
Neither is this BJP under Narendra Modi lazy and complacent, nor does the Congress led by Rahul Gandhi and the assorted band of regional parties resemble a resolute counterforce.
As things stand now, the BJP has a 10-1 edge over the Opposition. Let us first list the 10 reasons for giving Modi the early lead.
First, the spate of recent election victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — that includes two states in which experts had written it off — has brought tremendous momentum to the BJP and demoralised its opponents. They testify to the might and manoeuvrability of the party’s election machinery. It also proves PM Modi’s un-ebbing popularity because, in all the states, the party went without the CM face, staking out ‘Modi ki guarantee’ as its leading line. This will count even more in the general elections.
Second, the win in the Supreme Court against those who challenged the repeal of Article 370 and Article 35A in Jammu and Kashmir demonstrates the government’s determination to deliver on promises and shows sections of the Opposition as unpatriotic.
Third, the Modi government’s turnaround point after the BJP’s electoral rout in Karnataka was the successful Chandrayaan-3 landing. It brought the nation together in celebration and pride and showed the government’s unwavering intent in space research and exploration.
Fourth, while the UPA government kept pulling the Women’s Reservation Bill in and out of the box but never had the liver to pass it, the Modi government simply went ahead and did it. It was the topping on a slew of women-centric schemes like Ujjwala, toilets, collateral-free credit, Mahila Samman Savings Certificates and Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matriva Abhiyan. Brace for a massive allocation for women in the 2024 Budget.
Fifth is the all-round feel-good in the Indian economy. From financial institutions predicting a 7.5-8 per cent GDP growth in the next fiscal to industrial production at a 16-month high, and from average monthly GST collections jumping to Rs 1.66 lakh crore to Make in India strides in defence, electronics and other sectors, India has become the economy to watch for the world.
Sixth, the recent state elections have revealed the deep inroads that the BJP has made into India’s tribal population. In Chhattisgarh, where it had got just two out of 29 tribal seats last time, it regained 17 this year. The party has chosen tribal leader Vishnu Deo Sai as the CM. Perhaps the strongest message that the Modi government sent to this section was choosing Droupadi Murmu as the President of India.
Seventh edge is India’s leadership of G20 and its deft and muscular foreign relations. The powerful optics of Narendra Modi welcoming world leaders in Delhi for the summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky requesting him for mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India’s robust support for Israel while extending humanitarian help to Palestine in the Gaza war, standing up to China and coldly watching Pakistan unravel trickles down to the last Indian.
It has balanced its friendship with Russia, buying Russian oil and arms despite its close alliance with the US tells one about the Modi establishment’s dexterity in diplomacy.
Modi’s eighth edge is the fortunate flipside of what it has been accused of covert killings of terrorists on foreign soil. When Canadian PM Justin Trudeau whined about India’s hand in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, India stoutly denied it. But Indians were pleasantly surprised that from a peacenik ‘soft state’, Bharat seemed to have transformed into a ‘hard state’ which does not spare its enemies and is willing to eliminate them even inside ‘friendly countries’ which give these terrorists refuge and political space.
‘Unknown men’ killing enemies has now become an urban legend. It has been reinforced by dozens of killings of Islamist and Khalistani terrorists inside Pakistan, Canada, Italy and other countries. Indians who held Israel’s Mossad in awe now believe R&AW is doing a better job.
Ninth is the crackdown on corruption. After ED unearthed crores worth of cash from the houses of TMC leaders and their consorts, the spectacle of discovering Rs 350 crore in cash from Congress MP Dheeraj Sahu is unfolding. In days to come, such raids by ED and CBI are likely to intensify with prominent leaders like Abhishek Banerjee facing arrest.
Tenth is the countdown to the grand opening of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, 500 years after it was demolished by Mughal emperor Babar’s commander Mir Baqi in 1528. The inauguration, slated on January 22, is going to submerge the nation in devotion fervour and energise the BJP’s Hindutva cadre and voters across India.
The one edge that the Opposition currently has is the Congress’s gains in the South: election wins in Karnataka and Telangana. But it could be a pyrrhic victory. It strains the Congress relations with I.N.D.I.A. allies and makes them wary of ceding regional space to their national ally. Also, many regional parties have already publicly complained about the Congress’s arrogance and Big Brother attitude.
And anti-Hindu utterances by the southern ally DMK only consolidates the Hindu vote against the Congress and the alliance elsewhere.
This is how things stand now. In the coming months, the BJP may unbox several surprises. These could come in the Budget, or through direct benefit transfer, Uniform Civil Code, population bill, education reforms, a package for Pasmanda Muslims and even some movement across the border.
The Opposition is a whole savannah behind in the race. The tortoise may still have a slim chance, but only if its shell, neck, head and legs start walking in one direction.
Abhijit Majumder is a senior journalist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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