Opinion | Do the Wagner Mutiny & a Weakened Putin Spell Nuclear Nightmare for the Rest of Us?

Geopolitics is fascinating because of its glorious uncertainties. The entire west, till yesterday, was focused on handing Putin a defeat in Ukraine. I don’t think their objectives are as clear today.

The Wagner mutiny has undoubtedly weakened Putin, and the leader of the insurrection, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is unlikely to go back to selling hotdogs as he once did. I would wager that he is angling for a decoration as a Russian saviour in the minds of the common man. This can only happen at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cost.

The dissatisfaction in Russian society regarding the invasion of Ukraine, has now reached breaking point and the army cannot be immune to it. A demoralised army is not the best thing to happen to a country with maximum nuclear warheads. To make matters worse, a rattled strong man can hardly be expected to make rational decisions.

If Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive, as has been on the cards for some time, gains any traction, the question of Russia exercising its nuclear option is now a real possibility. That, as we can all imagine, would spell disaster.

Putin has been a thorn in the flesh for western strategists but what can possibly replace him, if things go awry in Russia, is a matter for nightmares. Rationally speaking, the west may opt to throw Putin a lifeline at Ukraine’s expense.

Former American president Barack Obama has recently gone on record saying there was sympathy for Russia’s claim in Crimea. I suspect that sympathy could extend to Russia’s claim on Donbas too.

Yet, an outright Russian victory would expose the underbelly of Europe. The best-case scenario for NATO appears to be a stalemate in the Ukraine war while a weakened Putin being replaced through democratic means over a period of time. Now that’s easier said than done.

The world has just been pulled back from the edge, while we Indians were sleeping. The story is not yet over though. Separately, a nuclear nightmare can easily engulf the command and control structure of an increasingly unstable Pakistan. We should introspect deeply about the chain of events in Russia, so that we are not caught napping if something similar were to happen in our neighbourhood.

(The writer has over 19 years of IT services and investment banking experience. Views expressed are personal)