In 2015, 196 nations signed on a landmark agreement in Paris committing to slash greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the climate crisis from spiraling out of control. They promised to limit the global rise in temperatures to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, while making efforts to hold it to 1.5℃.
Eight years later, the world has already warmed by 1℃ with devastating impacts globally. The IPCC is certain that the current climate action goals are not ambitious enough to prevent an overshoot of 1.5℃ in the near term. Even with successful implementation of current goals, the world is projected to emit a staggering 51.6 Gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030, studies show. But if we are to still keep the 2℃ goal within reach, emissions will have to be slashed by 43% by 2030 keeping 2019 as the baseline. Developed economies will need to reach Net Zero by 2050, climate finance will have to be made available for vulnerable countries and governments will need to ratchet up their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Therefore, COP28 comes at a crucial juncture, when the world leaders must act. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected to attend the summit on Friday to underline India’s commitment to climate action. This is significant especially after India’s G20 Presidency succeeded in securing a commitment from the big economies to pursue efforts to triple renewable energy goals by 2030 – a key target of COP28.
PIVOTAL MOMENT TO REFLECT AND ACT
As COP28 begins in UAE, it will be that decisive moment in history when governments will conclude the biggest-ever assessment of what we have done or have not done to prevent the climate crisis so far. “GST is important because it is not just a litany of what has not happened, but framing of what must happen. It is revisiting the Paris Agreement to strengthen climate action and make it more equitable. That is the big hope, that we can move forward in a way, that all countries move forward together," said Sunita Narain, DG, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).
Over 70% of the world’s population primarily in least-developed countries still does not have energy access, so the transition to green energy needs to be just and equitable. Finance is crucial for mitigation and adaptation for developing countries to raise ambition.
Just hours before the summit began, the COP28 President-Designate Dr Sultan Al Jaber said the UAE Presidency will hold every country and every stakeholder accountable to keep the 1.5℃ target within reach. “We need to reduce the gap between ambition and action. Those who promised, must deliver. Those who pledged, must act. I aim to achieve the highest ambition in the Global Stocktake (GST) decision."
INDIA ON TRACK, BUT FINANCE A BARRIER
India has already updated its NDCs last year and committed to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 level and achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030. It is likely to meet both the goals, but limited access to finance remains an obstacle. A latest report by global think tank Ember estimates that India would need an investment of $293 billion between 2023 and 2030 to meet its existing solar and wind targets. The investment will be essential to put India on track to more than triple its renewable capacity by 2030s – a commitment that COP28 seeks to achieve.
Experts say India has been active in making submissions to the long process of Global Stocktake, and it has been vocal about pre-2020 finance gaps that are yet not fulfilled by developed countries. Equitable access to the limited Carbon budget is crucial, especially under principles of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) that the Indian delegation has continued to emphasize. India will continue to push for more reliable public finance for the developing countries in the Global South.
Overall, the GST has already reiterated what the scientists have warned — the world is severely off track to keep warming below 1.5℃. But the big question at COP28 is whether this realization compels nations, especially the developed countries responsible for the highest share of historical emissions to raise their climate action targets?
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