Saffron Scoop | 'Better Early Than Never': BJP's New Mantra for State Elections After Karnataka Rout

The BJP came up with its first list in mid-April for an election scheduled on May 10. On the other hand, both the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) not only announced candidates but they were up and running even as BJP ticket hopefuls were sitting idle.

While many reasons like disbanding the Muslim reservation to Congress’s freebies promise seem to have played a role in BJP’s embarrassing loss, a super-late announcement was also blamed during review meetings. Now, the BJP doesn’t want to repeat its Karnataka folly in the upcoming state elections and hence has done something rare — it has started announcing candidate names despite the Election Commission not even announcing poll dates yet.

TO TAKE ON BAGHEL, TIME IS THEIR ALLY

If Chhattisgarh can be equated with a jungle, the BJP doesn’t have a ‘Babbar Sher’ (lion). The ‘pack’ of cadres is waiting eagerly to pounce upon Congress with whatever might they have after being battered in the 2018 rout when chief minister Raman Singh resigned as the longest-serving BJP CM. However, the ‘pack’ doesn’t know who will lead them. If in any state the saffron party is in such disillusionment, it’s in Chhattisgarh.

Raman Singh, its chief ministerial face, is currently the national vice-president who is more active on social media and seldom seen on the ground. His coterie has equally vanished. Leader of Opposition Narayan Chandel isn’t popular enough and state president of the BJP, Arun Sao, hasn’t created a connection with cadres that can make him a mass leader.

No wonder, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has taken charge of formulating the strategy himself. But faced with pro-incumbency from Bhupesh Baghel, BJP needed an edge and a super-early announcement of candidates gives the BJP exactly that. “The idea of the central leadership was to give ample time to candidates to be ahead of the curve as far as Congress is concerned,” said a Chhattisgarh BJP leader who attended Wednesday evening’s CEC meeting.

BJP sources indicate that the 90 assembly seats of Chhattisgarh were categorised into four sections — A, B, C, and D. While A represents seats where the BJP won and keeps winning, B represents seats where the BJP lost once or at most twice. Meanwhile, C represents those seats where the saffron party lost twice consecutively while D represents those seats where the BJP never won and are considered opposition strongholds.

BJP on Thursday afternoon announced 21 names and all of them happen to be from the “weak” seats. Sources say the BJP held back announcing six more names which were finalised for “further deliberation” and “will be announced very soon”.

BJP wanted to “deal with the troubled ones first” and hence the first list featured Patan — Baghel’s constituency where the BJP has “asked” its sitting Lok Sabha MP from Durg and Bhupesh Baghel’s family member, Vijay Baghel, to contest. Sources say he wasn’t very keen. Similarly, BJP has “asked” its SC Morcha chief Lal Singh Arya to contest from Gohad, another “weak seat”. BJP has fielded 10 Scheduled Tribes, 1 Scheduled Caste, and five women in the first go.

“Raman Singh, Om Mathur, and Mansukh Mandaviya will soon meet them to formulate seat-specific strategies. In the meantime, all of them have been instructed to hit the ground in their respective constituencies and appoint in-charge of every booth. This extra time is supposed to be exploited — this was the idea,” said a BJP leader on conditions of anonymity.

‘MAMA’ ISN’T ENOUGH, BJP NEEDS ‘EXTRA’

‘Mama’, as Shivraj Singh Chouhan is known in Madhya Pradesh, is faced with anti-incumbency, doubled with Kamal Nath’s flirtations with Hindutva — BJP’s patented electoral armoury. While weathering the after-effects of a Congress win in Karnataka, BJP and Chouhan both need something extra and this is where freebies and early candidate lists kick in.

In early June, Chouhan announced he will transfer Rs 1,000 per month to women. In January, he had promised the ‘Ladli Behna Yojana’ under which the state government now stands to spend a whopping Rs 12,500 crore per year. While this is to counter Congress’s promise of Rs 1,500 per month to women and an LPG cylinder for Rs 500 if it comes to power, time puts MP’s ‘Mama’ ahead of Congress’ game plan, where it feels left behind.

Unlike in Karnataka, where the BJP probables were itching to kick-start the campaign but felt stuck as the election date was nearing, the BJP has announced 39 names for the state’s assembly election with no dates by EC in sight. After a hurried CEC meeting on Wednesday evening, the BJP picked eight from Scheduled Caste, 13 from Scheduled Tribe, and five women for Madhya Pradesh. Starting Thursday itself, they have been asked to move to their respective constituencies, if BJP sources are to be believed.

“They have been asked not to move from their constituencies till result day unless they are called for a meeting in Bhopal, which is likely very soon and will be attended by Mukhyamantri ji (Chouhan), Bhupendra ji, Ashwini ji and Pradesh Adhyaksh (VD Sharma),” said a BJP leader from the state on condition of anonymity. He added that orders for printing of placards and billboards for many of these constituencies are being placed already. “Otherwise what’s the purpose of having this extra time?” he asked.

Shah, who is micro-managing the campaign strategy in Madhya Pradesh, is expected to visit the state within a week.

The BJP, like all other political outfits, encounters defeats but unlike others, it takes very little time to learn from it. Probably, that is why the summer of discontent this year has ingrained this deep-rooted mantra in the party that it is ‘better early than never’.