On 13 March, Imran Khan’s lawyers once again sought exemptions from his personal appearances in lower courts in Islamabad, on grounds of security. In the Toshakhana case, his lawyer, Khwaja Harris raised a maintainability question, on grounds of a time bar. A still incomplete contempt proceeding in the threat against the lady magistrate (Zeba Chaudhry) was also being held. Earlier both courts issued warrants of arrest, for his production in court, in the Toshakhana case by 18 March and in the other, before 29 March. The Islamabad police reached Lahore to execute one of the warrants of arrest. However, Imran had already left his Zaman Park house to hold an election rally.
However, as per the latest development, an Islamabad court on Tuesday suspended the non-bailable arrest warrants issued against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman until 16 March in a case where he had allegedly threatened the woman judge.
A new phase in the country’s turbulent politics opened with the ‘suo motu’ Supreme Court (SC) ruling (1 March 2023) directing that election to the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) assemblies be held within the constitutionally stipulated 90-day period. A sliver of ‘an escape route’ was provided in the ruling, qualifying that If elections could not be held within 90 days, then the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) should propose a date that “deviates to the barest minimum” from that deadline.
The assemblies were dissolved in January 2023. Caretaker administrations were installed in the two provinces, but the governors refrained from fixing a poll date. When President Arif Alvi unilaterally announced an election date (9 April), the government condemned this action while the ECP held back from doing anything.
The SC stepped in under Art 184(3). Chief Justice Omar Ata Bandial once again constituted a controversial bench leaving out senior most judges. After recusal by four judges, in a 3-2 verdict, the 5-member bench directed the president to suggest a new date for the Punjab poll, which he did (April 30). KP Governor, Ghulam Ali is yet to fix a date, though he has called in the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) for consultation.
The PDM’s popularity has been adversely impacted by the current dire economic situation. Under the IMF stipulations, subsidies are being withdrawn, leading to a rise in the prices of energy and food. This is leading to great popular anger and the target of the anger is naturally the government in power. The holy month of Ramzan will begin in less than a fortnight from now and popular tempers are likely to flare up further.
Even as elections, both provincial and parliamentary, loom just around the corner, Imran Khan has clearly emerged as the most popular leader in Pakistan. How successful he will be in translating his popularity into a comfortable majority is up for question. Though many of his supporters are predicting a comfortable, even two-thirds majority win, Pakistani political history clearly suggests that popular political leaders do not automatically win elections, especially if they find themselves on the wrong side of the military establishment.
Imran Khan’s relations with the military establishment have not been good. As had been pointed out in no uncertain terms in the joint press conference of the DG, ISI Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmed Anjum and DG, ISPR, Lt Gen Babar Iftikhar in October last year, Imran’s description of senior Generals as `betrayers’, ‘neutrals’ or `janwars’ was unacceptable and unlikely to be easily forgotten or forgiven. In his farewell address (23 November 2022), retiring Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa warned ‘many sectors’ for using `very inappropriate and undignified language while making the army the target of severe criticism’. This `was a false narrative’, from which ‘an escape was now being attempted’, Bajwa added.
The new chief, General Asim Munir too has reasons to view a possible return to power by Imran Khan with apprehension. He cannot forget how he was unceremoniously shifted to the Gujranwala Corps Command from the charge of DG, ISI in June 2019 merely because he had brought to the prime minister’s notice some corrupt practices by persons close to the First Lady’s family. In fact, this background may have helped in Nawaz Sharif opt for Munir in the build-up to the chief’s selection. In sharp contrast, during Imran’s Long March, the main thrust of his speeches had focused on making the selection as controversial as possible, feeding feuds within senior army echelons. When Munir was finally appointed, two senior Lieutenant Generals, Azhar Abbas and Faiz Hameed (Imran’s `blue-eyed boy’) sought premature retirement.
Aware of these dissensions and persisting support for Imran Khan among some quarters, including retired generals, ex-servicemen and even serving officers and other ranks, Asim Munir has had to move carefully in unifying the institution. So far, he has avoided reshuffling senior three-star generals. However, when President Alvi tried to intercede for a dialogue or discreet meeting with Imran, Munir politely declined, suggesting that if the aim was to defuse the intensifying polarization, the right person to meet would be Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
The other ruse employed, with apparent consensus between the military and the civilian leadership, has been to embroil Imran Khan in a host of legal cases, for his many transgressions and dual standards during his stint in power. The most important of these relates to the selling of the Toshakhana gifted expensive Saudi watches in the open market, the foreign funding obtained from expatriates for the PTI but used for private enrichment and the Tyrian White parenthood concealment case.
In a significant development (8 March), a PTI worker, Ali Bilal @ Zille Shah died in a car accident outside Imran’s house in Lahore. The car belonged to a senior PTI functionary. Yet, efforts were made by Imran and his party leaders to suggest that the cadre died due to torture under police custody. The Punjab caretaker administration may file cases against them for twisting facts of the incident for political gains.
Even though the higher judiciary has seemed rather partial, treating Imran with velvet gloves, slowly the noose may be tightening and the outcome of these legal wrangles will matter hugely in the run-up to the polls. In Pakistani politics, a political leader must exude an aura of invincibility. The calculation is that serious and ruthless use of the State’s coercive machinery against Imran Khan could damage this image.
Also important will be how successfully Imran and/ or other leaders, in case of his arrest (warrant for which now stands suspended till 16 March 2023)/ disqualification, manage their own party cadres and whether they are able to secure the support of Punjab’s electable, in the absence of the Army’s blessings. Recently, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, a master of the politics of electives in Punjab joined Imran Khan’s party and was rewarded by being appointed party president.
Though the ruling Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDM) coalition now has little choice but to implement the SC judgement, which is legally and constitutionally binding, intelligence reports have flagged threats from the resurgent Tehrik e Taliban (TTP), in both Punjab and KP, against possible assassination attempts on leaders like Imran Khan, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. These assessments could be used to delay the deployment of adequate security personnel for poll duties.
The country’s political and economic future thus appears to be more troubled than ever. Against this confusion and uncertainty, the legal consensus seems to be evolving toward holding the National Assembly and Provincial Assembly elections together, as has always happened in the past. This is because Art 224 (A) of the Constitution requires the appointment of caretaker administrations before elections. Incongruous situations could develop if the State has to go to elections with regularly elected governments in some provinces and caretakers in others, as also for the National Assembly, whenever polls are finally held.
Although the ruling coalition has been loath to engage with Imran Khan, who also refuses to talk to the PDM civilian leadership, one view is that an effort should be made to see if a mutually acceptable date for general elections can be agreed upon. For this move to succeed, Imran would have to show uncharacteristic flexibility, which does not seem likely at present.
The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views expressed are personal.
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