Global Watch | What India and The World Can Learn From Two Years of Russia-Ukraine War

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War completed two years in February 2024. This war has taught the world numerous lessons. While the situation is complex and evolving, some key takeaways can be distilled from the way this conflict has developed over the past two years. These lessons cover military, geopolitical, economic, and cyber domains, among others.

Lessons for the world at large

1. Military Preparedness and Modernisation: The conflict underscores the importance of having a well-equipped, trained, and modern military force. Ukraine’s resistance and the challenges faced by Russia highlight the significance of advanced weaponry, intelligence capabilities, and agile military strategies in modern warfare.
2. Cybersecurity and Information Warfare: The war has showcased the role of cyberattacks and information warfare as critical components of modern conflicts. Nations have learnt the importance of protecting critical infrastructure and countering misinformation campaigns.
3. Economic Resilience and Sanctions: The extensive use of economic sanctions against Russia by Western countries has highlighted how deeply integrated economies can be affected by geopolitical conflicts. Nations are learning the importance of economic resilience, diversification, and the potential impacts of sanctions on the global economy.
4. Energy Independence and Security: The conflict has led to significant disruptions in global energy markets, particularly in Europe, which was heavily dependent on Russian gas. This has emphasised the need for countries to pursue energy independence and security through diversification of energy sources and investment in renewable energy.
5. International Alliances and Diplomacy: The importance of international alliances and diplomatic efforts has been reinforced. The support Ukraine has received from NATO members and other allies demonstrates the value of diplomatic relationships and collective security arrangements in deterring aggression and providing military, economic, and humanitarian assistance.
6. Humanitarian Concerns and Refugee Crisis: The war has caused a significant humanitarian crisis, with thousands of civilians killed and millions displaced. This situation serves as a reminder of the importance of preparedness for humanitarian response and the need to protect the civilian population in conflict zones.
7. Role of Media and Public Opinion: The global coverage of the war and the role of social media in shaping public opinion has highlighted how media can influence international perceptions and political decisions. The conflict demonstrates the power of media in garnering international support or condemnation.
8. Legal Implications: The invasion has raised critical questions about international law, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The responses from international bodies like the United Nations and the International Criminal Court highlight the challenges in enforcing international norms and holding aggressors accountable.
9. Preparedness for Hybrid Warfare: The blend of conventional military tactics with cyber-attacks, economic pressure, and misinformation campaigns in this conflict illustrates the evolving nature of warfare. Nations are learning the need to prepare for hybrid warfare scenarios that require a comprehensive approach beyond traditional military means.
10. Strategic Patience and Long-term Commitment: The protracted nature of the conflict underscores the need for strategic patience and the readiness for a long-term commitment when supporting a nation resisting aggression. It highlights the challenges of sustaining support over time and the importance of long-term strategic planning.

Lessons for South Asian countries including India

• Diversification of Energy Sources

Lesson: The energy crisis precipitated by the conflict has underscored the vulnerability of over-reliance on a single source or type of energy.

Application for India/South Asia: It highlights the importance of diversifying energy sources, including investing in renewable energy, to reduce dependency on imports and enhance energy security.

• Importance of Military Readiness and Modernization

Lesson: The conflict has demonstrated the significance of having a well-equipped, modern military, capable of both defence and deterrence.

Application for India/South Asia: Given regional security concerns, including border tensions and internal security challenges, the importance of investing in military modernisation, technology, and self-reliance in defence production is clear.

• Strategic Non-Alignment and Multi-Alignment

Lesson: The war has shown the complexities of international alliances and the risks of being drawn into conflicts due to treaty obligations or economic dependencies.

Application for India/South Asia: It reinforces the value of a strategic non-alignment or multi-alignment policy, maintaining diplomatic flexibility to navigate between major powers while protecting national interests.

• Cybersecurity Preparedness

Lesson: Cyber warfare has been a significant aspect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, affecting not just military but also civilian infrastructure.

Application for India/South Asia: This underscores the need for robust cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, government networks, and private sector systems from cyber attacks.

• Economic Resilience and Self-reliance

Lesson: Sanctions and counter-sanctions have highlighted how geopolitical conflicts can impact global supply chains and economic stability.

Application for India/South Asia: There’s a lesson in enhancing economic resilience through self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat), diversifying trade partnerships, and developing internal markets to mitigate external economic shocks.

• Strategic Communication and Information Warfare

Lesson: The war has showcased the power of information and narrative control, both domestically and internationally.

Application for India/South Asia: The importance of strategic communication, media literacy, and the ability to counter misinformation becomes evident, requiring investment in domestic information dissemination capabilities and international broadcasting.

• Preparedness for Humanitarian Crises

Lesson: The displacement crisis caused by the war emphasises the need for readiness to handle large-scale humanitarian crises, including refugees and internally displaced persons.

Application for India/South Asia: Enhancing capacity for humanitarian response, both within national borders and in supporting neighbouring countries during crises, is crucial.

• Fostering Regional Cooperation

Lesson: The conflict illustrates how regional stability can be affected by external aggressions and the importance of a unified regional response.

Application for India/South Asia: Strengthening regional cooperation platforms like SAARC, BIMSTEC, and others for collective security, economic integration, and conflict resolution becomes increasingly important.

Conclusion

For South Asian countries, particularly India, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine serves as a complex case study offering lessons across the spectrum of national security, energy policy, diplomacy, and crisis management. Adapting these lessons to their unique geopolitical and socio-economic contexts can help the nations navigate future challenges more effectively, ensuring their security, prosperity, and sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain world.

The writer is an author and columnist and has written several books. His X handle is @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.