(Dr Shastri is a Political Scientist which is an Election Analyst for CNN-IBN and Pro Vice Chancellor of Jain University at Bengaluru)
The Delhi voter has finally spoken decisively, categorically and unequivocally. Never before in Independent India's electoral history (save in smaller states like Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh) has a party secured the time of mandate that the AAP has got. What explains this landslide win? A basket of factors the disarming simplicity of the AAP message, the tireless efforts in Arvind Kejriwal's campaign, the transparent humility of the AAP leadership in apologizing for the resignation of the previous government, the intensely negative and defensive campaign of the BJP, the silent shift of the traditional Congress vote to the AAP and a clear distinction between a national mandate and a state verdict. Each factor played a role in steering the verdict to the massive political storm that has swept the AAP to power.
The Delhi verdict is clearly a vote for an alternate politics that is grounded in reality. The verdict shows that the appeal of AAP was a support that was not limited to any specific social group or economic class, though the intensity of support may have been a little more among the socially underprivileged and the economically deprived. It is important to concede, that the voter always appreciates the `humane face` of political leaders. The AAP strategy of apologizing for having walked away from power the last time around, seems to have gone down well with the electorate. Rarely have we found leaders of parties accepting an error committed (Sometimes in good faith) and seeking the forgiveness of the voter.
The voter in Delhi has taken a conscious and strategic position of not placing all the `support eggs` in a single political basket. The stand even in July during the Lok Sabha election, was Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM. In the flush of victory, the BJP seemed to have ignored this message. Further, catapulting a newcomer to the Chief Ministerial position and hoping that the party cadres would back you and the voters would support you was a gross misreading of the situation by the BJP. The shrill rhetoric and negative campaign by the BJP against the AAP did little good to the image of the party and its leadership. The mandate also raises questions on how the Delhi voter looks at the BJP promise of the `coming of good days`. The BJP had already taken out an insurance policy for itself much before counting day by stating that the result would not be a referendum on its Central government. Referendum it may not be, a warning signal it surely is. A clear introspection on the limits of rhetoric and promise not being fully translated into reality and performance is a lesson of the Delhi verdict.
It is gratifying to note that after the AAP leadership has spoken with a sense of sobriety shorn of any signs of arrogance. The election results clearly indicates that the voter does not appreciate the `politics of hate` and `campaigns of negativism`. AAP seems to have read this message rightly. By securing 90 per cent of the seats, AAP needs to tread carefully.
This victory raises important questions for the two 'national' parties, BJP and the Congress. Both seem to blame each other, for the AAP victory! Neither of them seems to be willing to take on responsibility. Both talk of collective responsibility for the defeat. Collective responsibility is clearly a `code word` for shielding the `High Command`. The BJP leadership (both within the party and government) would have important and possibly uncomfortable questions to squarely address. These questions would be linked to performance, arrogance of power and accountability to its voters. The internal rumblings within the party would now be more audible. Congress spokespersons continue to be in denial and refuse to accept the fact that it is facing rejection in state after state. It is increasingly ceding space to state based parties across the country and this trend could result in the opposition to the BJP being led by state based parties across the country and not the Congress.
The Delhi verdict has an important message for all political players. Not taking voters for granted is one. Perform and not merely promise is another. Humility in victory and not merely in defeat is a third. The massive mandate would place a pressure on AAP to act with decisiveness, pursue inclusive politics and reach out to other political players.
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