Bird flu could kill 142 mn people: Report

Sydney: A global bird flu pandemic could kill as many as 142 million people and wipe some $4.4 trillion from economic output, according to a worst-case scenario published by Australian academics.

The study, released on Thursday by independent policy body the Lowy Institute, found that even a mild outbreak would have a sustained impact on the world economy.

"The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8 percent of GDP (approximately $330 billion) in lost economic output," the report says.

"A massive economic slowdown occurs in the 'ultra' scenario with over 142.2 million people killed and a GDP loss of $4.4 trillion."

The economic slowdown would likely see a major shift of global capital from the developing world to the less affected "safe haven" economies of North America and Europe, it said.

The report's authors, economic modeller and Reserve Bank of Australia board member Professor Warwick McKibbin and health expert Dr Alexandra Sidorenko of the Australian National University, said under the worst-case scenario, about one percent of Australians -- or 214,000 people -- could die from the disease.

Meanwhile, the nation's economic output would shrink by 10.6 percent.

The report was released as bird flu has apparently spread further within Africa and Europe.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed at least 91 people worldwide since late 2003, with most deaths in southeast Asia and China.

The report's authors note that there are "enormous uncertainties" as to whether the disease will mutate into a more contagious version spread via human-to-human contact.

But it recommends "large investment of resources" to ensure a flu pandemic does not occur.

Besides the deaths, a pandemic of any size would be expected to lead to a shrinking of the labour force due to death and illness, an increase in the cost of doing business and a shift in consumer sentiment away from exposed sectors such as travel and dining out, it said.

Meanwhile French veterinary authorities were conducting tests on Friday on a dead swan found near the central-eastern city of Lyon to detect the possible presence of bird flu, regional authorities said.

"Samples were taken on Wednesday morning on the body, and the results are expected to be known later in the day (Friday)," the Lyon prefecture said.

The bird was discovered on Tuesday on a highway a few kilometres south of Lyon.

In Asia another Indonesian was hospitalized on Friday with suspected bird flu, as the number of suspected cases in the world's fourth most populous nation steadily grows.

The 40-year-old housewife from South Jakarta was admitted to the Sulianti Saroso hospital for infectious diseases and was in stable condition, hospital spokesman Ilham Patu said.

She told doctors she had been in contact with sick chickens belonging to her neighbour before coming down with symptoms of pneumonia including a high fever, Patu said.

Hong Kong is also taking precautionary measures against the bird flu epidemic.

The country will ban the sale of live chickens at markets by 2009 in a move aimed at averting an outbreak of the deadly bird flu.

The Health, Welfare and Food Bureau would next month present the Legislative Council with a timetable for phasing out the sale of live chickens, the South China Morning Post reported, citing a senior government source.

Chicken farms would still be permitted to operate if their biosecurity measures were up to standard, or if the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain did not strike local farms in the next few years, it said.