The strong El-Niño event, which fuelled a spike in global temperatures and played a significant role in intensifying the blistering heatwaves across India, is now showing signs of ending, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
This is good news for India as this global scientific phenomenon is unfavourable for the southwest monsoon, and is linked with above-normal temperatures, stronger heatwaves, below-par rains and droughts. Large parts of India have been scorched by deadly heatwaves since April, with temperatures hovering over 43-49°C.
The current El- Niño event had formed last year, which ended as the second-warmest year on record for India. It peaked in December 2023, and began waning early this year.
WHAT IS EL-NIÑO?
El-Niño is a global scientific phenomenon, powerful enough to influence the weather worldwide. It forms after every two to seven years when the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer-than-usual. This warming typically lasts nine to 12 months, and intensifies extreme weather across the world.
The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts suggest that it is ending soon, and conditions are likely to swing back to La Niña later this year. La Niña has just the opposite impacts and forms when the surface waters of the same equatorial Pacific Ocean become cooler-than-normal. It leads to good monsoon rain over India, but its effects vary depending on its intensity, duration and interaction with other climate variables, which remains highly uncertain at present.
According to the WMO, “There is now a 50% chance of either neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August.” This is is also the time when southwest monsoon brings rain over the country. The chance of La Niña conditions rises to 60% during July-September and 70% during August-November. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also cited it as one of the reasons which could lead to above-normal rains over the country.
WARMING CONTINUES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The global meteorologists highlighted that events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now take place in the context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
“Since June 2023, every month has set a new temperature record. The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
Even though El Niño has waned, scientists warned that exceptionally high sea-surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during next months. According to the WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU), which also takes into account other climate phenomena, global sea-surface temperatures remain high outside the near-equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. There is therefore widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas, it warned.
“Our weather will continue to be more extreme because of the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere,” said Ko Barrett, who is leading a WMO delegation at the UN Climate Change session, which began in Bonn, Germany.
The Bonn Climate Change Conference is the mid-year UN climate event which will lay the groundwork for global negotiations at COP29 to be held from November 11-22 in Baku this year. The meeting called the Sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SBs) is being held in Bonn, Germany from June 3-13.
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