BP Yadav, Director, Indian Meterological Department says the heat wave impacting central parts of India has subsided and temperatures have cooled. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Yadav says that while monsoon has arrived over the Bay of Bengal, it will take at least three to four more days before it arrives in Kerala.
Q: Let me start by asking you about the current heat wave conditions and whether we are likely to see any relief any time soon across India?
A: Two things-first that the heat wave which was there for the last one week when temperatures rose up to 47 and 46 degrees centigrade in many parts of the country particularly over Telengana has now subsided a lot.
Temperatures have come down during the last 48 hours over north-west India, central India and also over the parts of Telengana. The heat wave has abated from Delhi NCR region, Haryana and Rajasthan.
Also Telengana although currently the heat wave are prevailing but still the temperature is about two notch lower than what it was 48 hours before.
Similarly the situation over other states of Orissa and Jharkhand where also temperature has come down. Having said that, I will like to add that yes of course the temperature has come down but still they are above 40 degrees centigrade over entire north-west, central, east India. Many of the places it is still 45, Vidarbha it is 45, in some places in Orissa and Jharkhand it is about 45 and at some places in Madhya Pradesh and south Uttar Pradesh also it is 45. So, although there is some relief but yet still the temperature remains high in some of the states.
Q: What about the onset of the monsoon now? Is there any delay that you anticipate in the onset of the monsoon?
A: Usually we all know that India gets first showers of the monsoon starting from Kerala around 1 June. This is the normal date and what we are seeing as of this year in 2015 that monsoon has arrived over the Bay of Bengal, yesterday it has entered into the certain parts of the Arabian Sea. But to declare the monsoon current arriving as an onset burst over Kerala, there has to have some minimum amount of rainfall, the strength of the wind, the depth of the wind and the cloud amount, that has not yet happened. There is gradual building up of the monsoon current over the Arabian Sea and we expect it will take another three to four days before monsoon can come over Kerala. So, there may be three four more days people have to wait for the arrival of monsoon over Kerala.
Q: Let me ask you about your forecast as far as the monsoon itself is concerned because there has been a divergence of opinion. The MET says that it is likely it will be a sub-par monsoon; Skymet is forecasting a normal monsoon this year. Has there been any change in your forecast as far as the monsoon itself is concerned?
A: No, not at all. India meteorological department is the nodal agency to issue any weather forecast and warnings and our long range forecast of monsoon is one of the prime activity of the IMD.
We have already indicated in the month of April that this year the monsoon is likely to be below normal and the probability of below normal is quite high. We have said that it will be only 93 per cent of the total amount of rainfall which we usually receive in monsoon season and add to it plus minus percent of the model error.
We have not changed any of these figures. Of course we will update our forecast in the month of June but currently the situations which are there globally, regionally, we don’t feel that there is any chance of increasing the figure. There is high probability of below normal monsoon.
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