A bypoll necessitated by the defection of a Congress MLA to the Bharatiya Janata Party is generating a lot of interest in political circles in Telangana. Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy from Munugode assembly constituency resigned from the grand old party recently and is set to join the BJP on August 21. The development paves the path for a bypoll in the constituency in Nalgonda district that has been a traditional Congress bastion.
Reddy and his elder brother, Bhongir MP Komatireddy Venkat Reddy, are among the richest politicians in the state and wield reasonable clout in the district. That is why political pundits feel that the bypoll might set the ground for the 2023 assembly election battle in Telangana.
Speaking to News18, political observer Palwai Raghavendra Reddy said that if a bypoll is held in the Munugode assembly segment, it is going to put tremendous pressure on chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao. If Rajagopal Reddy wins, the BJP will once again position itself as the party with the potential to defeat the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in the elections to be held late next year.
Political analyst Telakapalli Ravi says that the stakes are higher for the Congress than for the TRS. “If the Congress loses this seat, it will project BJP as the main opposition in the state. The grand old party has been gradually losing support in the state. In the earlier bypolls, Congress did not put up a stiff fight, but now, it cannot afford to do so,” he said.
A result in favour of Raj Gopal Reddy will complicate Congress’s position in the state, added Raghavendra Reddy. “Though the grand old party gained some momentum in its favour since Revanth Reddy took over as the chief of PCC (Pradesh Congress Committee), the Munugode result will put pressure on the party to position itself as the alternative to TRS,” he said.
There is also a family twist in the story where the two Komatireddy brothers are now affiliated with rival parties. In fact, they have been rebelling against the Congress leadership in the state for some time now. With Venkat Reddy meeting union minister of home affairs Amit Shah in Delhi, rumours are flying thick and fast that he too will join the saffron party. However, the Congress leader has clarified that he has no such intention, and that he, along with his brother, will go on serving the people of Nalgonda.
“Congress and BJP have given a long rope to the brothers. Recently, the Congress issued a show-cause notice to party spokesperson Addanki Dayakar for his remarks against the Bhongir MP. Irrespective of whether he joins the BJP or not, I feel that Venkat Reddy’s heart remains with his brother,” added Telakapalli Ravi.
BJP’s prospects
E Venkateshu, a political science professor from Hyderabad Central University, says that though the Munugode bypoll is not going to change the TRS government in Telangana, it will send a message to the people that the BJP’s strength is increasing gradually. Since most Congress leaders defected to the TRS, the BJP is positioning itself as a viable alternative to the pink party. It is trying to expand its base through a two-pronged strategy.
“Firstly, they are trying to make inroads into rural belts with a padayatra. Telangana BJP president and Karimnagar MP Bandi Sanjay Kumar is currently on a ‘Praja Sangrama Yatra’ for 20 days. Earlier, it was confined to urban areas,” added the professor. The second strategy is to send a message through bypolls. The saffron party is making all-out efforts to win a respectable vote share by engaging national-level leaders in campaigns, said Venkateshu.
However, the BJP does not have strong faces on the ground compared to the Congress, said Raghavendra Reddy. “This scenario might change fast though, and unless the Congress arrests this drift, the party is likely to lose momentum in the run-up to the 2023 polls,” he added.
Speaking about the prospects of the TRS, the political observer said that the pink party can bank only on the governance and charisma of KCR, which is slowly but certainly dwindling. “In 2023, KCR will be facing 9+ years of anti-incumbency, which is no mean task to overcome. The people in Telangana feel the government is faltering on various promises KCR has been making since the start of the movement for a separate Telangana state in 2001-02. Only time will tell us how much ground has shifted away from under the feet of KCR,” he added.
“The BJP faced humiliating defeats in the Huzurnagar and Nagarjuna Sagar bypolls held earlier in the state, pointed out Telakapalli Ravi. “However, with Raj Gopal Reddy joining them, things might turn out to be different. If TRS fails to mobilise its cadres, the saffron party might get some advantage. There is a chance of votes being split between the Congress and BJP. If BJP wins, it certainly cements its claim on forming the next government and changes the political scenario,” he said.
Previous bypolls
Since 2018, four by-elections have been held in Telangana. While the TRS won the Huzurnagar and Nagarjuna Sagar seats, the BJP wrested Huzurabad and Dubbaka.
The saffron party also won the election for the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC).
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