We are into the final week of the IPL 2024 league stages and are left with eight matches before the IPL 2024 playoffs. Only one team has booked the playoff spot so far – Kolkata Knight Riders. Rajasthan Royals are close to booking the second spot and need one win from their remaining two games. However, for the remaining two spots, the fight has intensified with RCB making a late push with their fifth win on the trot, while the win over Rajasthan Royals on Sunday have given Chennai Super Kings a shot in their arm. CSK may have played their last league game at home. Still, they are not out of the playoff race as of yet, and there is a possibility that MS Dhoni and CSK could feature in the IPL 2024 Qualifier 2 or IPL 2024 final set to be at the MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai.
With 14 points from 13 matches, CSK are currently placed third, but they cannot breathe easily as the fourth-placed Sunrisers Hyderabad have an extra game in hand and are equal on points with CSK. RCB are 5th on the points table with 12 points from 13 games, and it will boil down to their final league game against – guess who? – CSK. A win against CSK at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium is a must for the Faf du Plessis-led to remain in contention for the IPL 2024 playoffs. That game will happen on Saturday. By that time, LSG – CSK and RCB’s nearest competitor for the playoff spots – would have already played both of their remaining games. So, by the time Bengaluru hosts MS Dhoni and CSK, Virat Kohli and RCB will have ample clarity of what they must do to remain in playoff contention.
However, SRH will only be playing their last league game on Sunday, meaning SRH will know their equation to make the playoffs crystal clear. Here’s a look at the possible scenarios for both CSK and RCB to make the playoffs, and there is also a possibility that both CSK and RCB can make the top 4.
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How can CSK make the IPL 2024 playoffs?
CSK are left with one game against RCB and placed third with a Net run rate (NRR) of 0.528. A win will more or less ensure a qualification spot for CSK. SRH can leap ahead of CSK if they manage to win both their games, but even if LSG manage to win both their remaining games, owing to their NRR, which is -0.769, there is minimal possibility of LSG’s NRR leapfrogging that of CSK’s (if they win against RCB). So, it will be safe to say that a win against RCB will seal CSK’s playoff spot.
What If CSK lose to RCB?
If RCB claim their sixth win of the trot and get the better of CSK in Bengaluru, CSK will need to ensure that they do not lose by a margin of more than 18 runs (if RCB bat first and score 200). If CSK lose by a more significant margin under the rider above, then RCB’s NRR will be better than CSK’s, and RCB will jump above CSK in the points tally. In that case, if SRH manage to win either of their two remaining games, CSK will be out of the IPL 2024 playoffs.
If CSK lose by a narrow margin, they will end the league stages at 14 points, RCB will be equal on points with them, and the NRR will ensure that CSK are placed above RCB. If SRH win either of their remaining two games, then the final four will look like this: KKR, RR, SRH, and CSK.
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Can CSK make the top two?
There is also a slight possibility of CSK making it to the top two as well and booking a place in Qualifier 1. For that to happen, Rajasthan Royals will have to lose both their games and SRH to lose at least one of their two. In that scenario, a CSK win over RCB could see Ruturaj Gaikwad-led side finish in the top two in the points table. Conversely, RR will hope for an RCB win over CSK, because that will eliminate the possibility of CSK leapfrogging in the points table. The Sanju Samson-led RR are currently on 16 points. Even if RCB win over CSK, they will get to 14 points, and that way, RR will be assured of a playoff spot even if they lose both of their matches. SRH, by winning both matches, can go up to the second spot, but RR will be ensured of a third-place finish. In this scenario, the final four will look like this: KKR, SRH, RR and RCB/CSK.’
Can LSG knock out both CSK and RCB from IPL 2024 Playoff Race?
There is also a possibility of LSG getting to 16 points by winning both games, but in that case, it will be a headache for SRH, CSK and RCB and not much RR. Due to LSG’s NRR of -0.769, they can’t catch up to RR’s NRR even if RR lose both games. In short, LSG cannot aim for a top-two finish, and even if they qualify for the playoff, they will be below RR. LSG’s qualification will mean both CSK and RCB will be knocked out.
How can RCB make the IPL 2024 playoffs?
The no. 1 priority for RCB will be to beat CSK at M Chinnaswamy Stadium on Saturday to level on points with CSK. And in that win, they need to ensure the margin of victory is big enough to nudge their NRR to better than CSK’s. But that may still not guarantee RCB a passage to the playoff because if SRH win one more game, RCB won’t be able to catch up. In that scenario, RCB’s best bet will be to finish 4th in the points table. They will hope for LSG to lose at least one of their remaining two matches.
If LSG manage to win both their games and end up with 16 points, then RCB will have to beat CSK by a significant margin to ensure their NNR is better than CSK’s. And if LSG win both their games and SRH end up winning one more, then that will be the end for RCB in IPL 2024.
Can RCB and CSK both fail to make the IPL 2024 playoffs?
In a scenario where CSK loses, and SRH and LSG win both their games, CSK and RCB will be knocked out of the playoff race.
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