World Population To Decline Rapidly By 2100 Due To Falling Fertility Rates: Lancet Study

Our planet, currently home to 8 billion people across countries and continents, is poised for a significant population shift, according to a recent study published in the Lancet Journal. The study projects a drastic decline in global fertility rates, signalling profound implications for humanity’s future.

Since the 1950s, global fertility rates have steadily decreased across all nations. The trend is expected to persist until the end of the century, leading to a substantial reduction in population growth. From 4.84 in the 1950s, the fertility rate dropped to 2.23 in 2021 and is forecasted to decline further to 1.59 by 2100, as reported by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2021 conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Published on Wednesday, March 20, in the Lancet Journal, this study paints a sobering picture of humanity’s demographic trajectory.

Dr Christopher Murray, Director of IHME and senior author of the study attributes the declining fertility rates to various factors. These include increased opportunities for women in education and employment, wider availability of contraception, rising costs associated with child-rearing and a societal preference for smaller families.

A crucial threshold for population stability is the total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, known as the replacement level. When fertility rates fall below this level, populations begin to decline. Alarmingly, the study reveals that 46 per cent of countries had fertility rates below the replacement level in 2021. By 2100, this figure is projected to surge by 97 per cent, indicating that nearly all nations worldwide will experience sub-replacement fertility levels by the century’s end.

The implications of this demographic shift are profound and far-reaching. A shrinking population poses challenges to various sectors, including healthcare, labour markets, social welfare systems and economic growth. Governments and policymakers must grapple with the ramifications of declining fertility rates and adapt policies to address emerging demographic trends.

As humanity stands on the cusp of unprecedented demographic change, the Lancet study serves as a wake-up call, underscoring the urgent need for proactive measures to navigate the challenges posed by declining fertility rates and ensure the sustainability of future generations.