Numbers do matter in politics but not always. This is the case in Madhya Pradesh which will face counting and announcement of results for four by-polls on Tuesday. The assembly seats of Prithvipur, Jobat and Raigaon, and Lok Sabha seat Khandwa had undergone polling on October 30 with the Congress and the BJP holding two seats each ahead of bypolls necessitated due to death of four lawmakers.
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Although the poll outcome will not impact the power balance in Madhya Pradesh, many believe it will have a sizable bearing on both the mainstream political rivals gearing up for the mega 2023 clash.
The fate of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been debated for weeks now. After a defeat in the Damoh bypoll early this year, political analysts claim that Chouhan is under pressure to perform well in four by-polls and exhibit his ‘magic’ which he enjoyed for years.
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There is, however, no immediate threat to the current CM, at least till the UP assembly polls as the party is not in a mood to send out a risky message to voters by removing Chouhan who has been a poster boy for OBC classes for years, said a senior political editor wishing anonymity.
This is why the party is cautious about Chouhan who also doesn’t come with an RSS background.
A section of the BJP also believes that the vibes against Chouhan are still not so strong within the party but an adverse performance could well push the chief minister to the brink. However, the party is in general of the view that it will be too early for the leadership to hand over the mantle to the new entrant –Jyotiraditya Scindia — who also does not appear to be in any hurry.
“The party cadre will take a while to embrace Scindia’s leadership after he fully imbibes the BJP-RSS ideology,” said a senior RSS functionary in the state. One of Scindia’s aides also affirmed that right now the leader is focusing on serving the public.
Leaders like Narendra Singh Tomar, Narottam Mishra and Prahlad Patel are in the hunt as leadership change theories are flying around in the state for a while.
No wonder Chouhan had roped in 40 senior leaders, including a dozen cabinet minister in addition to five MPs and 25 organisational functionaries. Even UP Dy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya was roped in for Prithvipur constituency in Tikamgarh which shares proximity to Uttar Pradesh.
An untiring leader who remains on the ground on any given day for almost 16 years, Chouhan, the lone surviving CM of the LK Advani-Atal Bihari Vajpayee era’, has definitely pushed his limits in the bypoll campaigning.
On the other hand, for the Congress the bypolls are an ideal opportunity to rejuvenate and score a moral win ahead of 2023. The party which had been aggressive on the ground was marred by defectors after ex-MLA Sulochna Rawat and sitting MLA Sachin Birla quit after internal bickering in the bypolls.
“The outcome will decide how strong the PCC chief (Kamal Nath) is, especially after losing power last year,” said a political analyst in Bhopal, adding that the outcome will also help the Congress fix its agenda 2023 as the party banked on farming issues, Covid-19 mismanagement and inflation in the bypolls.
The Congress party has been sensing Chouhan’s departure for a long after the BJP altered the CMs in states like Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Karnataka. Many also believe that an emphatic win help Kamal Nath keep his flock together till 2023.
However, away from these political permutations and combinations, both the parties are confident of emphatic wins.
BJP spokesperson Ashish Agrawal predicted a sweeping win in all four seats, saying the public saw leadership crisis in the Congress government and the “powerful leadership in the BJP in last one year and half”. Asked to comment on impact of outcome, Agrawal claimed that these numbers have no bearings but it was evident that “party workers and voters participated in the bypolls with enthusiasm.”
Congress chief spokesperson KK Mishra said the party will win all the four seats with Khandwa LS seat pitted a close contest. The BJP is in a mood for change and CM Shivraj could face the heat once he tastes defeat in bypolls, added Mishra.
The political observers, however, are predicting a close contest in Jobat and Prithvipur while the BJP has an edge in Khandwa. The Congress seems ahead in Raigaon amid massive infighting in the BJP camp.
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