Nagarkurnool Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Key Factors at Play

Nagarkurnool (SC) Lok Sabha constituency comprises 7 Legislative Assembly segments: Wanaparthy, Gadwal, Alampur (SC), Nagarkurnool, Achampet (SC), Kalwakurthy and Kollapur.

Current MP: Pothuganti Ramulu from BRS

Voting Factors

• BRS: In 2019, Pothuganti Ramulu from BRS won the Nagarkurnool constituency, and is still considered a formidable leader. However, just recently, he and his son, Bharat Prasad jumped ship to the BJP. Bharat Prasad has since been given the BJP ticket for contesting the Lok Sabha polls from this seat.
• The BJP has managed to engineer similar defections, including of the like of MPs Ajmeera Sitaram Naik (Mahbubabad) and Godam Nagesh (Adilabad), and two former MLAs, Jalagam Venkat Rao (Kothagudem) and S. Saidi Reddy (Huzurnagar). G. Srinivas, a BRS candidate who unsuccessfully contested the parliamentary elections from Peddapalli in 2009, has also joined the saffron party.
• The defections by BRS leaders have rattled its top leadership at a time when the party is having a tough time finding strong candidates to contest the coming elections in the backdrop of its defeat in the assembly elections three months ago.
• BRS is struggling to even find candidates to contest the coming Lok Sabha elections on its behalf. Although it has announced candidates on five seats of Karimnagar, Peddapalli, Khammam, Mahabubabad and Mahbubnagar; it is the remaining 12 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state where the pink party is facing a tough time zeroing in on the candidates. Even senior leaders including former ministers and MLAs, are showing a lack of interest in contesting.
• It is perhaps in light of these developments that the BSP will contest the Hyderabad and Nagarkurnool Lok Sabha seats, out of the total 17 constituencies in Telangana, as part of its alliance with the BRS. In Hyderabad, the BRS has still not been able to recover from the BJP’s sweeping victory in the GHMC elections.
• BJP: The party appears to be in poll position to win the Nagarkurnool Lok Sabha constituency, now that it has heavyweight Pothuganti Ramulu and his son, Bharat Prasad in its ranks. Both remain popular leaders in the constituency whose image, ground inputs suggest, transcends that of ordinary politicians.
• The BJP was also among the first major players in the fight to declare its candidate on the seat, even as the BRS abdicated this seat to its partner – the BSP. The BJP remains significantly ahead of its competitors in this constituency.
• As is the case with lot of BJP candidates and MPs, Pothuganti Ramulu has facilitated the travel of people from Nagarkurnool to the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.
• Interestingly, the BJP’s state and local units appear to have largely accepted the intake of Pothuganti Ramulu and his son into the party, further solidifying the duo’s chance of clinching the seat this election cycle. That being said, there has indeed been whispered dissent over the party’s first list of Lok Sabha candidates from Telangana. However, the BJP is not breaking much sweat over the issue just yet and remains largely optimistic of emerging as the single largest party in the state in terms of Lok Sabha seats.
• The SC and ST voters together constitute about 29% of the vote in Nagarkurnool. Traditionally sympathetic with the Congress and BRS, this vote is now shifting in favour of the BJP.
• In Nagarkurnool, Modi remains the favoured candidate for becoming Prime Minister again.
• According to the Network18 opinion poll, BJP’s vote share in Telangana is expected to jump from 14% (which it scored in 2019) to about 28% this year.
• Congress: Months after capturing power in Telangana, the Congress has set an ambitious target of winning at least 10-12 of the state’s 17 Lok Sabha seats. BJP has set a similar target for itself, with Amit Shah making it clear to state leadership that he was looking for 12 seats from Telangana.
• The Congress can take consolation in the fact that it won the assembly constituency. However, this does not mean the party is in a comfortable position to win the Lok Sabha seat, especially given how the contest in Telangana will be three-directional, potentially benefitting the BJP.
• Mallu Ravi is the party’s Lok Sabha candidate in Nagarkurnool. Ravi, who was appointed as the state government’s special representative in Delhi, resigned from the post as he was aspiring for a ticket.

VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

Total Voters of Nagarkurnool (SC) parliament seat as of 2019 Parliament Election: 1,588,111

Urban Voters: 165,164 (10.4%)

Rural Voters: 1,422,947 (89.6%)

Constituency literacy rate: 47.88%

Voters By Caste (approximate)

SC Voters: 311,270 (19.6%)

ST Voters: 150,871 (9.5%)

There are 134 Backward Classes in Telangana and they hold significant power in some seats.

Voters By Religion in Nagarkurnool District (approximate)

Hindus: 93.16%

Muslims: 5.70%

Christians: 0.44%

KEY CONSTITUENCY ISSUES

• Nagarkurnool by far and far remains a backward constituency, with SCs, STs and other backward castes playing a big role in the electoral dynamics.
• Nagarkurnool is a hub for labour, and many workers from the constituency work in urban centres across the state, especially in Hyderabad. On a related note, economic hardships do remains an importance electoral issue for the people in the constituency.
• Irrigation-related shortcomings and a shortage of water are among significant electoral issues in Nagarkurnool, much like other parts of Telangana.
• BRS is credited with taking some steps to alleviate the irrigation and water related woes of the people in this constituency. It is also known to have created employment opportunities. However, the defeat in the assembly polls suggested that this work was not enough to overcome the mighty incumbency that faced BRS.
• BRS is unlikely to be able to withstand BJP’s aggressive push and also setbacks like the arrest of it key leaders like K Kavitha.
• Although there have been reported instances of crime, it does not appear to be among the deciding factors which will sway the voters in Nagarkurnool either towards a party or away from it.
• The lack of basic health infrastructure in many areas of Telangana, especially the peripheral regions is a particular cause of concern. A suo-motu PIL taken up by the Telangana High Court in January over the death of a woman and her newborn child, after the pregnant woman was forced to travel 124 kilometres while in labour, served to highlight the lack of infrastructure in peripheral health centres.

DEVELOPMENT

• In October last year, PM Modi inaugurated projects and laid the foundation stone for new infra schemes worth more than Rs 8,000 crore in Telangana. Among these were the laying of foundation stones for 20 critical care blocks (CCBs) under the Pradhan Mantri – Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission. One of the CCB is being built in Nagarkurnool as well.
• Previously, in July 2023, a decision was taken to strengthen the required infrastructure under the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) 2.0, which aims at providing every household with access to a tap with a guaranteed supply of water and a sewer connection. This was a part of the plan to improve water supply service in 81 Urban Local Bodies across the State, including Nagarkurnool.
• In 2022, then industries minister KT Rama Rao had laid the foundation and inaugurated development works worth Rs 670 crore, out of which Rs 470 crore worth works were planned and executed in Nagarkurnool constituency. However, despite such claimed work, the BRS lost the assembly seat of Nagarkurnool to the Congress.
• Completion of BRS-initiated projects like Palamuru Ranga Reddy Lift Irrigation Project are crucial for enhancing agricultural productivity and ensuring water availability in the district.

KEY STATE ISSUES

• Corruption: A major factor which affected the BRS’ performance in the state election was that of corruption. The involvement of BRS leaders in cases like the Delhi Liqour Scam have painted a poor picture. A CSDS-Lokniti post-poll study indicated that corruption emerged as a prominent source of dissatisfaction among voters. BRS is likely to still suffer from the stigma even in Lok Sabha polls.
• Civic Infrastructure: Although the BRS claimed to have turned Hyderabad into a “global city”, the issue of water logging has been a major problem in the state capital. There have also been incidents of people being washed away into drains during drains during the monsoon season.
• Though the previous state government has built several flyovers, there are still choke points at many important places. This was one factor that brought the Congress to power.
• Water Shortage: With the summers setting in, the problem of water shortage in Telangana is once again being felt, especially in the state’s northern areas. Habitations in rural and urban local body limits have started facing the water shortage. Villages in remote and interior areas are facing an acute shortage. Lack of coordination between Mission Bhagiratha officials and other departments worsened the situation in undivided Adilabad, Karimnagar and Nizamabad districts. ST communities are the worst hit, as water supply in tribal areas has become a real problem.
• Job Creation: Telangana is struggling with a limited availability of formal sector employment. Both BJP and Congress promised the creation of jobs in their poll manifesto last year. Chief Minister Revanth Reddy has appointed D Sridhar Babu as IT, BT minister. He is educated, young and dynamic, and the hope is that he will further Telangana’s IT ambitions. Earlier, KTR had earlier claimed that under BRS government employees in IT industry in the state increased to nearly nine lakh from over three lakh in 2014.
• Freebies: Like AP, Telangana also has a thriving freebie culture. KCR, during his 10-year rule survived mainly on freebies and the incumbent Congress government is also continuing with it in fact promising more freebies.
• From farm loans to free LPG cylinders and financial assistance to underprivileged people, guarantees around welfare schemes and the implementation of these schemes are likely to play a key role in shaping the political landscape of Telangana. There is a growing burden of state loans and the substantial financial commitments associated with various aid programs like Rythu Bandhu and Dalit Bandhu schemes.
• Farmer Distress: Cultivation area for turmeric in Telangana has experienced a notable reduction in recent years due to unfavourable price trends. Farmers are not receiving even ₹6,000 per quintal of turmeric, which is below the production cost of approximately ₹8,000 per quintal. PM Modi had earlier promised to establish a National Turmeric Board, but there has been no action on this promise yet. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the issue had played a pivotal role.
• Polarisation: With the Ram Mandir issue taking a poll position in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, a national mood has been set. Telangana is not immune to religious politics. Hyderabad areas is especially vulnerable to polarisation, and the BJP has firebrand leaders to counter the influence of the Owaisi-led AIMIM.Telangana has better law and order situation now. Naxalism has been fully contained and the younger generation is not interested in violence or armed struggle being raked up of any kind.

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