“Yes, Yadavs dominate the politics here…but all are not with the Samajwadi Party now. Law and order is important, gundagardi vaapis nahi chahiye (no one wants hooliganism to be back). In this election, the only factor is Narendra Modi” — so say a group of people in a village in rural Manipuri, some of whom are from the Yadav community.
Travel on the Agra-Lucknow Expressway across the Yadav belt of Uttar Pradesh – from Firozabad to Manipuri, Etawah and Farrukhabad, and Badaun to Kannauj – and one thing is clear. The Samajwadi Party may be out here with its top guns in the election battlefield led by Akhilesh Yadav and Dimple Yadav, but the BJP remains strongly in the game given its performance on law and order, which even some Yadavs acknowledge as a big factor in these elections too. The overwhelming factor here too remains Narendra Modi.
News18 traveled across the region for two days to speak to a cross-section of people who gave SP a “100% chance” to win only Mainpuri out of the half-a-dozen seats in region which are dominated by Yadavs. Manipuri has been constantly held by the SP for over three decades now and Yadavs are the biggest vote-block here. But the situation is not so comfortable for the SP elsewhere – they lost Kannauj, Firozabad, Badaun, Etawah and Faruqabad in 2019 polls too.
In Kannauj, multiple people said that Akhilesh Yadav’s entry as a candidate had made the contest tight but BJP still had the edge. “This is because SP is pitted only against one candidate in all seats – that is Narendra Modi. So even Akhilesh can lose like Dimple Yadav lost from Kannauj in 2019,” a perfume manufacturer in Kannauj’s famous perfume market told News18.
Another shopkeeper in the area said law and order is the biggest factor. “I don’t need to tell my son now to be home by time. This region was also infamous for Yadav bahubalis (strongmen). Every village had a SP strongman and Yadavs dominated all important posts. It is no longer the case as Yogi Adityanath has smashed that ecosystem,” he said.
SP leader Shivpal Singh Yadav’s son Aditya Yadav making his poll debut from Badaun while Ram Gopal Yadav’s son Akshay trying his luck again in Firozabad after losing in 2019 elections.
“They are all winners…we will sweep all these four seats this time,” Ram Gopal Yadav told News18. Shivpal left his nomination to make his son contest and is now camping in Badaun to secure his son’s political future.
Samajwadi Party’s campaign in the region is focused on ‘BJP will end reservations’ but the BJP’s campaign on ‘don’t let the lawlessness of SP fame return’ has equal if not greater resonance.
“It seems the Yadav family can’t make up its mind even in its strong region. First, Shivpal was announced as candidate from Badaun and then his son. Tej Pratap was announced as candidate from Kannauj and then Akhilesh,” a group of Brahmin voters in Badaun told News18, saying this shows SP is worried over BJP’s increasing dominance in Yadav-land. Yogi Adityanath has begun his poll tours of the region too.
The SP is hoping that Akhilesh’s nomination from Kannauj will galvanise the SP cadre in all six seats of the Yadav-land. Core SP supporters in Kannauj told News18 that this region is descriptive of ‘PDA politics of SP’ (focussed on backwards, Dalits, minorities) and say voters got misled by ‘jumlas’ of BJP in 2019 to vote for them. People who support BJP however say there is no going back to Samajwadi Party in the region.
Free rations from the BJP is a factor that is keeping the women voter largely intact with the party too in this region. Though Dimple Yadav is reaching out to women and is a huge draw in Mainpuri, the factor does not seem to be traveling elsewhere. The only factor that is reigning supreme is Narendra Modi — as even some core Yadav voters say this election is about making the next Prime Minister for which Akhilesh Yadav is surely not in the race.
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