Agra Lok Sabha Elections: Which Way Will the City of Taj Sway? A Look at Key Factors

The Agra Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. This seat is reserved for candidates from the Scheduled Castes and comprises part of Agra district and part of Etah district. The Agra (SC) Lok Sabha constituency includes five Assembly segments, all of which are currently held by the BJP — Etmadpur, Agra Cantt (SC), Agra South, Agra North, Jalesar (SC). The constituency will vote in the third phase of general elections on May 7, 2024.

Sitting MP — Satyapal Singh Baghel (BJP)

Candidates — Satyapal Singh Baghel (BJP), Suresh Chandra Kardam (SP), Pooja Amrohi (BSP)

Political dynamics

• BJP: The BJP has been winning the Agra (SC) seat on the trot since 2009. In the 2019 elections, it had replaced the 2009 and 2014 winner Ram Shankar Katheria with Satyapal Singh Baghel as its candidate. Katheria was moved to the Etawah seat from where he had won.
• This time, the BJP has again fielded its sitting MP Satyapal Singh Baghel from the Agra (SC) seat. SP Singh Baghel is a prominent OBC leader and five-time MP from Uttar Pradesh.
• He currently serves as the Minister of State for Health & Family Welfare in the Narendra Modi cabinet. Baghel had started his political innings under the guidance of Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav.
• As a police sub-inspector, Baghel had served in the security of then chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav. He quit the police force in 1996 to become an associate professor in military science after doing PhD.
• A party-hopper, 64-year-old Baghel was a member of the Lok Sabha in 1998, 1999 and 2004 as a Samajwadi Party MP, representing the Jalesar seat in UP.
• After three terms as an MP, Baghel was denied a ticket from Firozabad in 2009 and was eventually suspended from the SP.
• He then unsuccessfully contested two Lok Sabha elections as a Bahujan Samaj Party candidate. In 2014, Baghel was elected to the Rajya Sabha as a BSP nominee.
• He jumped once ship once more, this time joining the BJP. He became president of the BJP OBC Morcha in 2015.
• In the 2017 state elections, he became an MLA from Tundla. He joined the Yogi Adityanath government as a cabinet minister from 2017 till 2019 when he successfully fought the Lok Sabha election from reserved Agra seat.
• In July 2021, Baghel entered the Union Council of Ministers for the first time as MoS in the law ministry.
• In May last year, hours after shifting Kiren Rijiju from the law ministry, the Centre moved Baghel to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
• The move was necessitated after Arjun Ram Meghwal was made the Minister of State with Independent charge of the Ministry of Law and Justice. According to convention, a ministry headed by a Minister of State with independent charge does not have a deputy.
• In April 2022, an MP-MLA court acquitted SP Singh Baghel and 60 others in a 2014 case related to post-poll violence in Firozabad.
• In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, Baghel unsuccessfully contested against Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Singh Yadav from the Karhal Assembly constituency.
• In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Baghel had defeated nearest rival, Manoj Kumar Soni of the BSP, by more than 2.10 lakh votes.
• Stoking a controversy in May last year, Baghel had claimed that “tolerant Muslims can be counted on fingers” and it too “was a tactic to lead a public life wearing a mask” as it leads to vice-president, governor or vice-chancellor posts.
• He had alleged that the “real face of such so-called intellectuals” from the community is revealed after they complete their term in office or retire.
• The saffron party has to do at least as well in these elections as the last time in Uttar Pradesh to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of winning 370 seats in the new Parliament.
• PM Modi’s candidature from Varanasi has a major impact on other UP constituencies as well.
• The new Ram Temple in Ayodhya strengthens the party’s Hindutva plank, a factor it can bank on for Hindu consolidation in seats like Agra.
• The BJP will cash in on the perception that the Yogi Adityanath government has “zero tolerance” towards crime.
• Development of infrastructure, particularly highways and airports, in recent years improves the BJP’s prospects.
• Samajwadi Party: The Samajwadi Party has not been able to win the Agra (SC) seat since actor-politician Raj Babbar won the Lok Sabha constituency on SP tickets in 1999 and 2004 general elections.
• The party has nominated Suresh Chand Kardam to take on former SP leader and sitting MP Satyapal Singh Baghel in Agra.
• Kardam, a former BSP leader, is a shoe businessman who belongs to the Jatav community which is a dominant factor in Agra.
• He is expected to pose a serious challenge to the Bahujan Samaj Party since Jatavs are BSP’s traditional vote bank.
• Kardam had unsuccessfully contested mayoral elections for the BSP from Agra in 2000.
• The SP is contesting the polls in an alliance with the Congress this time, with the grand old party attempting to regain its lost ground in Uttar Pradesh.
• Among the factors working for the SP is its strong base in the OBC and Muslim communities.
• The Yadav family, too, appears to have buried its differences in recent years and has put forward a united front.
• The party, however, faces the accusation of being partial to Muslims and harbouring “criminals” within its ranks.
• Its recently forged alliance with the Congress could help avoid splitting of votes, particularly within the Muslim community, in several western UP constituencies like Agra.
• BSP: The Bahujan Samaj Party has never been able to win this constituency since its formation in 1984 despite it being a Jatav-dominated seat.
• In the past three elections, its candidates have had to contend with being the first runners-up.
• In the quest for a maiden win in Agra, the BSP has given the ticket to 52-year-old Pooja Amrohi, the daughter of veteran Congress leader Satya Behan.
• Behan is former Rajya Sabha MP and vice-chairman of the National Commission for Scheduled Castes.
• Pooja Amrohi is a graduate of the prestigious Lady Shri Ram College in Delhi.
• Her grandfather-in-law, the late Prabhati Ram, was the first Dalit corporator of Independent India from Amritsar.
• In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP contested the polls along with the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).
• This time, Mayawati jolted the INDIA bloc by declaring that the BSP would contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections on its own. The Congress had been seeking to rope in the BSP in the opposition grouping.
• Mayawati’s decision also dashed any hopes of uniting all non-BJP forces to put up a strong opposition against the BJP and opened the gates for a third force in the key Hindi heartland state of Uttar Pradesh.
• The BSP supremo, however, hasn’t ruled out a post-poll alliance.
• She recently taunted the SP for fielding Hindus in “Muslim-dominated constituencies” and Muslims on seats where Hindus dominate.
• She has also urged Muslim voters not to split their votes, saying if the community votes for the Congress, “then the BJP will get the benefit”.
• Despite a bad showing in the past few elections, the party enjoys an enviable support base among Dalit voters.
• The BSP, however, relies heavily on Mayawati as its leader, with virtually no second rung of leadership.
• Dismal performance in the 2022 Assembly elections, its dwindling presence in Parliament and the state legislature has also demoralised party workers.
• Depending on its performance, the BSP has a chance of striking a post-poll understanding with the winning party or coalition.
• Jatav factor: Agra has a substantial population of Jatavs, the Dalit subcaste to which BSP chief Mayawati belongs.
• It is also referred to as the ‘Dalit capital’ due to the substantial presence of the community.
• Sitting MP and BJP candidate SP Singh Baghel faces the challenge of preventing a division of Dalit votes in his constituency so that he can retain the seat.
• However, he is also banking on the BJP’s Hindu votes to compensate the depletion of Dalit votes, if any.
• The BJP had won 14 of the 17 reserved seats of Uttar Pradesh, including Agra, in 2019, while one seat went to its ally Apna Dal(S). The BSP could manage to win only two reserved seats – Lalganj and Nagina.
• The Scheduled Caste or Dalit vote, which is around 21% of the electorate in UP, is broadly divided into Jatavs (11.7%), Pasi (3.3%), Valmiki (3.15%), Gonds, Dhanuks, Khatiks (1.2%) and others (1.6%).
• It is only the Jatav vote bank that continues to back the BSP, while other Dalit caste groups have shifted loyalties to other parties, including the BJP.
• The main reason for the Dalit disillusionment with the BSP is the fact that Mayawati has completely alienated herself from the grassroots cadres and has not even allowed a second rung leadership to emerge within the party.
• Interestingly, the BJP has been consciously reaching out to non-Jatav Dalits, non-Yadav OBCs and upper castes that have ensured its stupendous victory in the last four polls in Uttar Pradesh, including the 2017 and 2022 Assembly polls.
• BJP’s Dalit leaders are holding small meetings in Dalit-dominated areas without any pomp and show. They list the welfare schemes launched by the Centre and state for weaker sections and convince them to support the BJP.
• Muslim votes: In 2019, the BJP had got the benefit of a split in Muslim votes in some seats of western UP, and its candidates registered wins from Agra, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh Lok Sabha seats.
• In the changed circumstances of 2024, the biggest concern for the SP-Congress alliance will be to prevent the scattering of Muslim votes because its victory on many Muslim-dominated seats can be possible only if the Muslim votes are united in its favour.
• This time the biggest challenge for the Samajwadi Party is to keep the Muslim voters united in its favour.
• A major reason for this is that since 2019, the SP has not been as vocal on Muslim-related issues as was expected from it.
• The BJP, too, is looking to tap into Muslim voters. UP BJP minority morcha president Kunwar Basit has claimed that the party received about 10% votes of the Muslim community in 2019.
• This time the target is to increase it to 15%, especially the Pasmanda Muslims, who have benefited the most from government schemes.
• 99-Election Man: 78-year-old Hasnuram Ambedkari ‘Dharti Pakad’ first contested in state elections in 1985, but after 98 electoral defeats, he is gearing up to contest 2024 general elections.
• “This time also I am sure that I will be defeated on both seats. But, my aim is to contest for the 100th time, and after that, I will not contest any election,” says Ambedakri, who earns his living as MNREGA worker.
• Ambedkari, who hails from Kheragarh tehsil of Agra district, fought his first election as an Independent in March 1985 against the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) candidate from Kheragarh constituency of Agra district.
• His journey of consistently contesting elections as an Independent and losing has even got him the Hindi sobriquet of ‘Dharti Pakad’ given to such candidates after the famous Kaka Joginder Singh ‘Dharti Pakad’, who had unsuccessfully contested over 300 elections – even the presidential polls.

Key constituency issues

• Taj Mahal controversies: Certain historians and Hindu groups claim that the Taj Mahal was once a Shiva temple called Tejo Mahalaya.
• In October 2022, the Supreme Court had rejected a petition to open the sealed doors of the Taj Mahal, calling it “publicity interest litigation”.
• The petition, filed by Rajneesh Singh, BJP media in-charge in Ayodhya, had sought to examine the 22 locked rooms of the Taj Mahal for Hindu idols.
• The petition had also sought to set aside certain provisions of the Ancient and Historical Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains (Declaration of National Importance) Act, 1951 and the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains Act, 1958.
• In February this year, a fresh petition was filed in an Agra court asking for the monument to be declared as Tejo Mahalaya.
• It also sought a stop on all “Islamic activities” at the Taj Mahal.
• The fresh petition has been filed by advocate Ajay Pratap Singh, a patron of the Shree Bhagwan Shree Tejo Mahadev.
• In February 2022, police had stopped members of right-wing outfits from entering the Taj Mahal premises and reciting ‘Hanuman Chalisa’ there as a mark of protest over the ‘hijab’ row in Karnataka.
• Agra High Court Bench: There is a demand for a bench of the Allahabad High Court in Agra due to the inconvenience faced by litigants from other regions. The NCR planning committee recommends setting up a High Court bench in Agra to attract investments. Some say that corporate and capital investments in Noida have gone to other states because of the easier accessibility of justice in corporate affairs. Every few months, lawyers holds demonstrations demanding a High Court Bench in western Uttar Pradesh. The lawyers say that the Lahore High Court is closer to the cities of western Uttar Pradesh, including Agra, Meerut, and Saharnpur, than the state’s main high court at Allahabad.
• Water shortage: Agra is reportedly facing an acute water crisis due to a sudden disruption in the supply of water from the Ganga. The disruption is through a crucial 140 km pipeline from a canal in Palda in Bulandshahr district. The authorities postponed the total shutdown of the water supply until after the festivals of Eid and Ramnavmi for technical reasons.
• The water crisis is alarming as the temperature soars due to heatwave in the city. The demand rises and the supply fails to meet the increasing requirement, primarily due to neglect of Yamuna.
• Yamuna pollution: The National Green Tribunal has formed a committee to obtain a factual report on the pollution of the Yamuna river in Agra. According to a petition filed before the green tribunal, a huge number of aquatic animals, including fish, died in the past few years while the river had turned into a nala (drain) near the Taj Mahal.
• The riverbed has risen due to non-undertaking of the requisite desilting and dredging activities and there is high faecal coliform contamination in the river the petition said.
• Annual Urs at Taj Mahal: A right wing organisation has filed a petition in an Agra court seeking prohibitory injunction against the observation of the ‘Urs’ at Taj Mahal. The petitioner, Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha, has also challenged free entry inside the Taj for ‘Urs’.
• The three-day Urs is observed to mark the death of Mughal Emperor Shah Jahan, who got the Taj Mahal constructed in 1653 on the banks of Yamuna in Agra.
• ABHM spokesperson Sanjay Jat contended that the body had filed the petition on the basis of an RTI which revealed that neither the Mughals, nor the British allowed Urs to take place inside the Taj.
• The three-day Urs sees the rituals of ‘chadar poshi’, ‘sandal’, ‘gusul’, ‘kul’ and others.
• On the last day of the ‘Urs’, a ‘chadar’ 1,880-metre-long or more is offered.
• Potato processing unit: Farmers in Agra have been waiting for a potato processing unit ever since Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, spoke about the need for one in 2013.
• Agra is famous for its superior quality potato which is supplied to several states of India. Potato is grown on 72,000 hectares in Agra district which currently has 270 cold storage units with a capacity of 25 lakh metric tonnes.
• According to reports, Agra farmers say setting up a vodka distillery can solve many of their farmers by not only generating employment but also ensuring that the potato supply of the region has buyers.
• Crimes against women: A spate of rape cases involving minors recently have brought into question women’s safety and the safety of children in the tourism hub.
• On April 9, a six-year-old girl was allegedly sexually assaulted by a Class 4 student. The victim was said to be critical in hospital and police had to reportedly deploy extra force to ensure law and order was maintained as the victim and the accused belonged to different communities.
• On March 19, two men were arrested for allegedling gang-raping a 13-year-old girl and confining her to a hotel room in Agra.
• On March 18, an 18-year-old girl was reported to have been raped by a male friend and two of his acquaintances in Sikandra police station area of Agra.
• Ram Mandir: Eyeing Hindu consolidation in Muslim-dominated western UP, the BJP has been hoping to reap the electoral dividend of constructing the Ram Temple at the Ram Janmabhoomi in UP’s Ayodhya as it has been promising in multiple manifestos.
• It is also reminding voters that the Congress “snubbed” the consecration ceremony of the temple in January, pegging it as an insult of Lord Ram himself.
• Uniform Civil Code: After abolishing special status for J&K in 2019 and constructing the Ram Temple in Ayodhya this January, the BJP has turned its attention to its third legacy election promise — a Uniform Civil Code.
• In April last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself made a strong pitch for UCC, saying the Constitution also mentions of having equal rights for all citizens.
• Union Home Minister Amit Shah too recently reminded voters of PM Modi’s “guarantee” to bring uniform civil code in the country on the same lines as Uttarakhand.
• In April 2022, Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya had revealed that the Yogi Adityanath government is thinking seriously in the direction of implementing a Uniform Civil Code in the state.
• During the Assembly election campaign in 2022, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, too, had also spoken in favour of one law for the entire country and had said the matter would be taken up at the right time.
• With neighbouring Uttarakhand implementing one in March this year, the prospect of a UCC for Uttar Pradesh has become a factor in Lok Sabha elections, especially in constituencies with significant Muslim population.
• The issue of the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code does not enjoy the Opposition support besides that of Muslim bodies.

Voter demographics

Social composition

SC — 21.09%

ST — 0.16%

Religious composition

Buddhist — 0.11%

Christian — 0.22%

Jain — 0.46%

Muslim — 9.1%

Sikh — 0.23%

Literacy rate

60.43%

Major infra projects in Agra

• New Agra Urban Centre: The Uttar Pradesh government is planning to develop a new city, called New Agra Urban Centre, near Agra along the Yamuna Expressway. The city will cover 10,500 hectares, which is about half the size of Noida, and is expected to be located around 150km from the Noida airport in Jewar. The Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority (YXPA) is leading the project and has invited consultants to create a 10-year master plan. The city will focus on tourism, manufacturing-related units, and residential centers.
• Agra airport projects: In September last year, the Uttar Pradesh government cleared a Rs 123 crore proposal for land acquisition to expand the Agra airport and upgrade it to international category. As per reports, the expansion plan will involve acquisition of 92.50 acres of land in Abhaypura, Balhera, and Dhanauli. The plan also includes building a 30,000 sq km terminal equipped with nine bays to accommodate nine Airbus A321 aircraft, the extension of the present runways, and other airport facilities. The new terminal is expected to be built in the next 36 months.
• The Airports Authority of India (AAI) is building a new civil enclave at Pandit Deen Dayal Upadhyay Airport in Agra. The project is being undertaken under the Gati Shakti Mission to increase tourist inflow to the city. The new civil enclave will include a 30,000 sq m civil terminal building with four aerobridges, 32 check-in counters, and three baggage claim belts. The airport will also be expanded to accommodate nine narrow-body aircraft.
• Agra Metro: The priority corridor of Agra Metro was inaugurated virtually by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 6 and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath took the inaugural train ride from the Taj Mahal station to Taj Mahal East station.
• Metro services on the 6-km corridor were available for commuters with stops at Taj Mahal East station, Captain Shubham Gupta station, Fatehabad Road station, Taj Mahal station and Mankameshwar Temple station.
• The priority corridor has three elevated and three underground stations.
• CM Adityanath had appreciated the Uttar Pradesh Metro Rail Corporation (UPMRC) for timely completion of the first phase of Agra Metro, and said it has become operational nine months ahead of schedule.
• Prime Minister Modi had laid the foundation stone of the metro on December 7, 2020 and it was completed in 23 months.
• Vande Bharat trains: With the Hazrat Nizamuddin-Khajuraho Vande Bharat in March this year, Agra has two Vande Bharat routes servicing the city.
• The Hazrat Nizamuddin-Khajuraho Vande Bharat Express makes six stops, including Agra Cantt.
• The train operates on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays.
• Earlier, the Bhopal-New Delhi Vande Bharat Express was the only one reaching Agra Cantt.
• Soon, the first ever Vande Bharat sleeper trains will run between Agra and Gorakhpur with the North Eastern Railway preparing a detailed plan. As per reports, the train may have a stop at Tundla railway station and would run six days a week. The train would likely take 13 hours from Agra Fort to Gorakhpur.
• Gangajal Project: In 2019, Prime Minister Modi had dedicated to the nation, Gangajal project, which will provide Agra with better and more assured water supply, at an estimated cost of Rs 2,880 crore. Gangajal project aims to bring 140 cusecs of Ganga water to Agra. This will help meet the drinking water demands in the city.
• Smart City project: The Agra Smart City Project includes the development of a heritage walk, which has been completed and is currently undergoing operations and maintenance. The project also involves connecting private cameras that focus on the outside to the Smart City’s control room.
• In August 2023, PTI reported that Agra was ranked third in the government’s Smart City contest, after Indore and Surat. In September 2023, Drishti IAS reported that Agra was chosen as the third best smart city in the country.
• Agra-Gwalior Greenfield Expressway: This is a six-lane, 88.4 km expressway that will connect Agra and Gwalior. The expressway will begin at the inner ring road in Devri village of Agra district and end at Susera village in Gwalior. It is expected to reduce travel time between the two cities from 2–3 hours to just one hour.
• The expressway will be constructed at a height with 2–3 meter high walls on its sides to prevent stray animals from entering. It will have 47 culverts, four small and five big bridges, a rail overbridge, two flyovers, and the biggest bridge on the Chambal River.
• The expressway is being constructed by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) under the Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) project model.
• The estimated cost for the expressway is Rs 2497.84 crore, with each kilometer costing approximately Rs 25.80 crore. The stretch between Agra and Dholpur is anticipated to cost Rs 972 crore.

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.

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