Sometimes it is best to keep things simple, even when circumstances are despairingly complex.
In recent memory, there has not been a more complicated coalition at the state level than in Maharashtra. The BJP-PDP coalition had a lot more ideological tension, but even that had fewer moving pieces.
The Maharashtra Mahayuti conundrum has the BJP and the breakaway factions from the original Shiv Sena and NCP led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar respectively. Then there is the Republican Party of India (Athawale) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) of Raj Thackeray.
With the BJP and its Hindutva-plus-development plank at the core, the coalition is a confluence of Sena’s Marathi manoos credo, NCP’s secular-Maratha persuasion, RPI’s Dalit doctrine, and MNS’s local strongman politics. It is not a smooth mix.
Instead of adding to the BJP’s basket, this kind of ideological hotchpotch poses the danger of taking away from it unless the core is made extremely strong.
For instance, the BJP voter is unique in the sense that besides nationalism and development, he or she also looks for clean politics. The BJP voter tends to disproportionately punish his or her favourite party during elections if it steps off that plank.
In Maharashtra, almost every BJP ally is seen as corrupt, ideologically compromised, and opportunistic. Importing leaders like Ashok Chavan, Ajit Pawar, Bhavna Gawli, Pratap Sarnaik, Yamini Jadhav, and others, who were under ED and CBI scrutiny for corruption, has deepened that perception.
But the cold electoral arithmetic of the state makes it impossible for any one party to come to power on its own.
So, is endless accommodation of allies the BJP’s only option?
Should it under-assert itself to a point where no partner feels threatened or insecure?
It can’t afford to do either.
The coalition will flop, like it did in the 2024 general elections, if its centre, the BJP, gets further weakened.
Already, the cadre is demoralised. In spite of emerging as the single largest party repeatedly in recent state elections, the BJP has surrendered the chief minister’s post to its allies. First to Uddhav Thackeray, then to Eknath Shinde. Even while addressing the party’s own cadre, the central leadership now talks about strengthening the NDA in the state, not the BJP.
Besides, there is a growing feeling that all is not fine between the RSS and the BJP. Some insiders say that the perceived problem of a breakdown of the consultative process is not exclusive to Uttar Pradesh, but there is a spillover in Maharashtra and other states. BJP president JP Nadda’s remark that the RSS has nothing to do with the BJP electorally has soured things further.
This affects morale, because when the cadre of Sangh and BJP is joined at the hip on the ground.
Finally, intrinsically linked to cadre morale is leader morale. Demoting an able and popular chief minister to serving as deputy CM is bound to affect Devendra Fadnavis, however smilingly and selflessly he may have accepted it. And that demoralises the BJP workforce in the state.
Fadnavis is undoubtedly the tallest BJP leader at the state level. Since 2014, when Narendra Modi stormed to power at the Centre and put the relatively young and dynamic Devendra Fadnavis at the helm in Maharashtra, the state has seen a strong developmental run with projects such as the Coastal Road, Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link, Samruddhi Highway, metro systems in Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Thane, and Navi Mumbai, Jalyukt Shivar, and the Navi Mumbai Airport. As home minister, he acted decisively against Islamists, urban naxals, and the underworld.
While sitting in the opposition, Fadnavis exposed the Antilia bomb plot and the body bag scam during the COVID-19 pandemic.
He led the BJP to its highest-ever tally in the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections, winning 122 seats. In 2019, the state BJP led by him, in alliance with Shiv Sena, again became the single largest party with 105 seats.
The only way that the BJP can manage the complicated coalition is by ruthlessly strengthening itself and getting enough seats so that it is not at the mercy of the whims of its partners. It needs to reconnect with its mothership, the RSS, clearly define its state leadership and fully back it, and re-enthuse its cadre for the upcoming Maharashtra elections.
Bold consolidation, not meek compromise, is how it can win Maharashtra again.
Abhijit Majumder is a senior journalist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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