Prime Minister Narendra Modi is back for a third term. No prime minister has managed such a thing since 1962. How big is this? What does it mean for the BJP? What does it mean for the Congress and the Nehru-Gandhi family that runs it? To understand this, let’s think about the fundamental shifts in Indian politics since 2014.
In August 2017, a remarkable thing happened, but it went mostly unnoticed at the time. That month, Sampatiya Uikey of the BJP was sworn in as a Rajya Sabha member from Madhya Pradesh. With that, the BJP ended the 65-year run of the Congress as the largest party in the Rajya Sabha. Since the Rajya Sabha reflects the strength of a political party in state legislatures across the country, it shows just how dominant the Congress had been in Indian politics. Once in a while, they might lose out at the Centre. But they were never far from power. Even in the 1999 Lok Sabha election, which Vajpayee won, the vote share of the Congress was a solid 5 per cent more than the BJP. In 2004, there was a bit of anti-incumbency, as you might expect. A swing of just 1 per cent away from the BJP, and Vajpayee lost power. For a non-Congress party, getting re-elected used to be impossible.
The Congress used to be keenly aware of this advantage. “The BJP is envious of the Congress party,” P Chidambaram declared in 2010. “It is the Congress party alone which can govern the country for five years and go back to the people and ask for a mandate and get re-elected,” he had also said.
So, what has changed since 2014? Well, Mr Chidambaram, the least we can say is that the BJP no longer has a reason to be “envious” of the Congress. The Congress has now lost three elections in a row. In 2014, 2019 and 2024, its vote share remained around 19-21 per cent. For comparison, this is far below the 28 per cent that the Congress got in 1999! What made the difference? The BJP now leads over the Congress by well above 10 per cent. The BJP got 31 per cent in 2014, 37 per cent in 2019, and 36 per cent in 2024. The Congress, in contrast, has not seen such numbers since 1991.
There are some eerie similarities between 2004 and 2024. Both times, the BJP performed well below expectations, and exit polls got it wrong. Both times, the BJP lost around 1 per cent of the vote. But in 2024, the national footprint of the BJP is much larger than that of the Congress. While they lost votes in states such as Uttar Pradesh, they compensated by bringing in new voters in Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Everywhere, the baseline for the BJP was much higher. Even though they are down in Bengal, they still have a dozen seats from the state. Similarly, despite setbacks in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP still won 33 seats.
Overall, the BJP went into the 2024 election with 303 seats, while Vajpayee had gone into 2004 with just 182 seats. The BJP may have fallen far short of “400 paar”. However, long before the election began, one thing was settled: the BJP would be the single largest party, and the Congress would be nowhere near it. This was probably the first such general election ever.
As for governing for five years and getting re-elected, let us look at the Congress’s performance in the three states where the party is currently ruling. In Himachal Pradesh, the party lost all four seats. In Karnataka, they could only win nine out of 28 seats. It was a draw in Telangana, with the Congress and the BJP getting eight seats each. In the last two places, the Congress-run state governments are less than a year old and already suffering from severe anti-incumbency.
Now here is an astonishing fact. The Congress has not been re-elected in a big state since 2011! Since then, the BJP has returned to power in numerous states, including Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, and Assam, not to mention securing two consecutive terms at the national level. And yet, for some reason, the Congress party and its cheerleaders appear to be making fun of the BJP’s victory.
That said, there is no doubt that the BJP suffered a serious setback in this year’s elections. Anyone who cannot admit that is not a well-wisher of the BJP. The saffron party has been hit badly in core states such as Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, where it was expected to sweep. Was it due to poor candidate selection, or a failure to do the social arithmetic properly? Perhaps it was damaging rumours circulating among voters, creating anxiety that the BJP couldn’t address in time. Or maybe it was the one thing the Indian voter will never forgive: arrogance. Either way, for its own good, the BJP needs to go back to the grassroots. Listen to every voice, and find out what happened.
The Congress is celebrating its 99 seats. Even with 50, they likely would have celebrated, thanking their leader. Their cheerleaders would have found a way to give credit to Rahul Gandhi. That is why you cannot compare the BJP to the Congress. The BJP didn’t reach 303 seats through complacency. To regain that level of success, they must strategise effectively in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana, while consolidating gains in Odisha and Telangana. The east is now almost completely saffron: Assam, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and even northern Bengal. However, the BJP must determine what continues to hinder their performance in the 25 or so seats around Kolkata.
One significant feature of the 2024 election was the urban voter base’s strong support for the BJP. Even in West Bengal, the BJP led in 69 out of 121 municipalities. So why did the party lose votes in rural areas and what steps can they take to regain lost ground? Are more welfare schemes the answer?
The new government has already announced some of its first decisions: a hike in Minimum Support Price (MSP) for 14 crops and the construction of three crore new homes under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. These welfare schemes are feasible due to the government’s favourable fiscal position.
After ten years of dedicated effort, India has shed its “fragile five” economy label and emerged as a top-five global player. The country is poised to reach the top three within a few years. The Modi government has brought stability to banks, the fiscal deficit, and the current account deficit. The economy is now growing at a rate of 7 to 8 per cent, and is likely to keep going that way. Without the runaway inflation of the UPA years, mind you. And India is finally growing faster than China, indeed the fastest in the world, unlike the UPA years.
With ten years of anti-incumbency blowing in its face, the Modi government went into the 2024 election. They did not offer any major new welfare schemes, confidently campaigning on their record—and won. Remember that the pandemic has been the worst thing to happen to humanity since World War II. No world leader has been re-elected since then, with the exception of Prime Minister Modi.
In France and Germany, the ruling parties were recently reduced to third place in elections. In Canada and the United Kingdom, the ruling parties are staring at a meltdown. Looking at the recent “family photo” and approval ratings of world leaders at the G7 meeting, someone remarked that Narendra Modi is the only one who can say that his people are fully with him.
But the Opposition has also adjusted to the new political chessboard. Most others in the INDIA bloc are family-based parties, just like the Congress. This includes the Samajwadi Party, the RJD, the DMK, as well as the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena. In Bengal, the TMC is almost certainly on a path towards family rule. The CPI(M) in Kerala, under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his son-in-law, now a minister in his cabinet, are going the same way, although the Communists will never admit it.
The year is 2024. That means it has been roughly 22 years since much of the political class set out to destroy Narendra Modi. Not just in India, but within the deep state almost everywhere. Who can forget the insults, or the international smear campaign against him? Who can forget the visa denials, or the 65 Indian MPs who wrote to President Obama in 2013 against Narendra Modi? The media hitjobs against him continue to this day. In these 22 years, Narendra Modi has gone from a four-term chief minister to a three-term prime minister. So far, he has beaten his opponents at every turn. His place in history is now assured. But he has to keep running to stay ahead.
Abhishek Banerjee (@AbhishBanerj on “X”) is an author and columnist; Karuna Gopal (@KarunaGopal1 on “X”) is President, Foundation for Futuristic Cities. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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