The year 2023 is full of elections. A total of nine states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram — are going to polls this year. As per media speculations, Jammu and Kashmir, currently reduced to a Union Territory, is also likely to head into Assembly elections this year.
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka are big states and together, they represent 82 seats in the Lok Sabha while states like Chhattisgarh and Telangana, though not big, together contribute 28 seats to the lower house. In comparison to these, the four Northeastern states — Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram — only have a total of 6 seats in the Lok Sabha. Of these, barring Mizoram, the rest are going to see polls early this year.
It’s true that these states are small in size and their representation is hardly noticeable in the lower house, still, they are crucial for the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Of these, only in Tripura, it is the ruling party on its own strength. The stakes for the saffron party are high ideologically in this state as it came to power in 2018 by defeating its arch-rival Communist Party of India (Marxist). Times have changed and this time, it is the saffron party that has been facing the heat of anti-incumbency. It faces the challenge from a resurgent CPI(M), which under its new state secretary Jitendra Chaudhury, has found new strength and has been organising processions in the plains as well as the hills against the state’s saffron government. On the other hand, the Congress has also been gaining ground. This is an alarm for the BJP as its ascent to power was possible because of the decimation of the grand old party. Both the Opposition parties, once arch-rivals, have developed a bonhomie — another cause of worry for the saffron party. In addition to this, its ally The Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) has almost lost its ground to Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma’s TIPRA Motha. BJP’s tribal wing Janajati Morcha isn’t that strong to counter Motha in the tribal belt.
The BJP, which lost Himachal Pradesh last year, can’t afford to lose another state, as it will only reduce the saffron footprint in the country. This election is going to test the party’s formula of changing the chief minister ahead of the elections. Last year, the party replaced Biplab Deb with Manik Saha. This formula has worked in Uttarakhand and Gujarat. Apart from this, Narendra Modi’s popularity will also be put to test as he was one of the biggest contributing factors to the saffron party’s historic feat in the last elections.
In Meghalaya, where it got a vote share of 9.6 percent and 2 seats in the last polls, the saffron party has nothing to lose. It has been a part of the ruling Meghalaya Democratic Alliance comprising five parties. Although in the elections, it is fighting alone and has intensified its attack on the ruling Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party (NPP). Interestingly, BJP’s lone minister Sanbor Shullai in the NPP-led MDA (Meghalaya Democratic Alliance) government has not resigned yet. Already four MLAs — two from NPP, one from TMC (Trinamool Congress) and an Independent — have joined the saffron party giving it a boost ahead of the elections.
In Nagaland, the BJP has renewed its 2018 alliance formula with the Neiphiu Rio-led National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and agreed to contest 20 seats. The BJP-NDPP alliance came to power by winning a total of 30 seats and formed the government after it got support from the sole Independent MLA and the sole Janata Dal (United) MLA. Party’s Yanthungo Patton has been the deputy chief minister. It has to be mentioned that the BJP won 12 seats with a vote share of 15 percent despite the Nagaland Baptist Churches Council — the state’s biggest church council — appealing to voters not to vote for the saffron party ahead of the elections.
The electoral performance of the BJP in these two states is crucial for Modi, who will be the face of the party in these two states. This year, India is going to hold the G20 Leaders Summit for the first time — and this is a big opportunity for Modi, who has his eyes on the global stage. Nagaland and Meghalaya are Christian-majority states and the BJP is focussing on these to shed the image of being an ‘anti-Christian party’. Last year, it won seven seats in the Christian belt in Manipur. The BJP is aiming to do well in both Meghalaya and Nagaland to show that its past performances in Christian areas weren’t just aberrations.
The writer is a political commentator. He tweets @SagarneelSinha. Views expressed are personal.
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