Exits polls have predicted the BJP’s return in Tripura and its alliance with NDPP winning a majority in Nagaland and a hung assembly in Meghalaya.
The poll results will signal if the BJP managed to retain its ground in Tripura, a Left bastion captured by the party in 2018, and made further inroads in Meghalaya and Nagaland, or if the opposition has managed to dent its influence.
Tripura
In Tripura, the BJP is facing the Congress-Left alliance and TIPRA Motha, which has emerged as a challenger. In this battle among the national parties, it is the Pradyot Debbarma-led TIPRA Motha that has emerged as an X-factor as the sway of its founder, scion of erstwhile royalty, among a big section of the tribal population has disturbed conventional calculations, more so as the BJP and its ally Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) had done well in the tribal region in 2018.
The BJP’s stunning rise after having failed to win a single seat in 2013 to a majority on its own five years later by decimating the Left citadel for two decades was projected by the party as its ideological victory over its rivals, and a loss will be seen as a setback despite Tripura’s relatively marginal influence on national politics.
According to Axis My India, the BJP alliance could win 36-45 of the 60 seats, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) alliance 6-11 and the Tipra Motha Party (TMP) 9-16.
Matrize, meanwhile, has predicted 29-36 seats for BJP+, 13-21 for CPM+, 11-16 for TMP and three for others. Jan Ki Baat has predicted 29-40 seats for BJP+, 9-16 for CPM+, 10-14 for TMP and one for others. ETG has predicted 24 seats for BJP+, 21 for CPM+, 14 for TMP and one for others.
Of the 60 seats in Tripura, 20 are dominated by the tribals. In the 2018 elections, the BJP won 33 seats, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) 4, the Communist Party of India (M) 15, and the Congress one.
Nagaland & Meghalaya
The exit polls predicted the NDPP-BJP alliance would form the government in Nagaland and a hung assembly in Meghalaya.
In Nagaland, which had the unique feature of having no opposition as all parties with presence in the 60-member assembly backed the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party-led government, the BJP is again fighting the polls in alliance with the NDPP.
In Meghalaya, for the first time, the BJP has fought on all 60 seats and constantly targeted its former ally National People’s Party leader and Chief Minister Conrad Sangma for running the “most corrupt” state government in the country.
The BJP was a partner in the state government but broke ties ahead of the polls. The party hopes to boost its strength from two in the assembly to emerge as a more powerful player if the verdict throws up a hung assembly like the last time.
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