The Centre has developed its own mathematical system for the estimation of tuberculosis burden — an alternative to the globally used World Health Organisation’s model — making India the first country to estimate its incidence of TB and mortality due to the disease.
Courtesy Nikshay, a case-based, web-based surveillance system in India since 2012, the quality of notification of TB patients has improved significantly. Now, the country has decided to use its own model and may step away from the global estimates drawn up each year by the WHO.
According to the estimates by the Indian model, the incidence of TB per lakh population stands at 197 in 2021 whereas as per the WHO report, it stands at 210. Similarly, TB mortality as per the WHO report stands at 35 whereas the Indian model estimates it at 24.
The health ministry has said the global TB reduction numbers stand at 11 per cent while the reduction in TB cases in India is 18 per cent.
In the recent global meeting undertaken by StopTB Partnership, chaired by Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, India has shown the model to health ministers and representatives from 40 countries. “The model was appreciated by everyone and in fact, several countries were interested to learn more and adopt it,” an official from the ministry said.
The official said TB incidence and mortality estimate information will be available by March every year, six months earlier than WHO that gives estimates in October every year. India can also make state-level estimates in future.
More about the model
The model has been constructed using the natural history of the disease, individual status of infection, disease, healthcare seeking, missed or correct diagnosis, treatment coverage and outcomes, including cure and health.
The model, as per the officials at the ministry of health, was calibrated for the observed or reported figures as inputs for prevalence rate, notification rate, mortality rate, the proportion of patients being put on treatment, reduction in notification over a period of time in the public and private sector among other factors. The model has been calibrated for years between 2011 and 2025.
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