After Maharashtra's Maneuvers, Will Bihar Boil With Political Upheaval? Explained
After Maharashtra's Maneuvers, Will Bihar Boil With Political Upheaval? Explained
Explained: After Ajit Pawar became Maharashtra deputy CM, Union Minister Ramdas Athawale suggested that a similar situation could arise in Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) in Bihar

Maharashtra’s political landscape has been thrown into turmoil as Ajit Pawar, along with eight other MLAs from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), broke ranks and joined the Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis government. This move has caused a vertical split within the Sharad Pawar-led NCP.

But could something like this happen in Bihar?

There are worries that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may set its sights on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) (JDU). Speculation is fueled by indications of discontent within the governing alliance of JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Congress in Bihar. As a result, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has held one-to-one meetings with several JD(U) legislators to address the brewing unrest within the party, according to reports.

While the possibility of a Maharashtra-like situation cannot be entirely ruled out, it remains to be seen how the situation unfolds.

Discontent Brewing?

On Monday, after Ajit Pawar of the NCP became the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, Union Minister Ramdas Athawale suggested that similar situations could arise in other opposition parties, including Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) in Bihar, as per PTI.

Athawale mentioned the possibility of rifts in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, stating that many MLAs are unhappy with Nitish Kumar’s alliance with the RJD.

“Maharashtra-like situation may erupt in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh as many MLAs are unhappy with Nitish Kumar joining hands with RJD. Similarly in UP, Jayant Chaudhary can join the NDA as he did not attend the Patna opposition meeting.”

Sushil Modi, a BJP Rajya Sabha member and former deputy chief minister under Nitish Kumar, also expressed the likelihood of a Maharashtra-like situation occurring in Bihar. He claimed that JD(U) MLAs are dissatisfied with Nitish Kumar’s actions, feeling betrayed after a longstanding natural relationship with the BJP.

Sushil Modi added that a sense of insecurity about their future has emerged among the legislators. Chirag Paswan, leader of the Lok Janshakti Party, claimed that several MLAs and leaders from JD(U) were in contact with him and predicted that the party would not win more than 10 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

Trouble in Bihar’s Grand Alliance?

These statements indicate a potential trouble within the Grand Alliance in Bihar, suggesting that the BJP could take advantage of the situation. There are reports of BJP leaders reaching out to Nitish Kumar’s MLAs, trying to attract them to their side. Moreover, it is reported that Nitish Kumar is facing pressure from his own ally, the RJD, to shift his focus to the national stage and hand over the leadership of Bihar to his deputy, Tejashwi Yadav.

Speculation is also circulating that Nitish Kumar, who is known for changing alliances in the past, might return to the BJP, keeping his reputation of being a political switcher intact. It is noteworthy that during Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent visit to Bihar, he did not comment on Nitish Kumar, nor did he indicate that the BJP’s doors are closed for him. Additionally, Nitish Kumar’s meeting with the Governor and Sushil Kumar Modi’s subsequent visit to the same location has raised eyebrows, with some interpreting it as having a connection or significance, according to a report by Firstpost.

What Do Numbers Say?

The numbers play a crucial role in the BJP’s potential coup in Bihar. Currently, the BJP holds 74 seats in the 243-member Assembly and would need to reach 122 seats to stake a claim to the government. This means they require an additional 48 MLAs to form a majority, according to Firstpost.

At present, the ruling coalition, known as the Grand Alliance, has approximately 160 MLAs. This coalition consists of the JD(U), RJD, Congress, and three Left parties that support the government from outside.

However, last month, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), led by former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, withdrew its support from the Nitish Kumar government. The HAM, with four MLAs, had joined the ruling alliance last year. In response to the speculations, JD(U) national spokesperson Rajib Ranjan dismissed the reports of unrest, labeling them as propaganda by the BJP.

With inputs from PTI

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