Pak's gamble to control Taliban likely to fail

Islamabad: Pakistan has made a deadly gamble in Swat of signing a peace deal with two of the most dangerous men in the region.

While one man fought against the US in Afghanistan after 9/11, the other has set up more than 30 illegal radio stations in Pakistan to impose hardline Islam.

The two men hold the fate of Pakistan's Swat Valley, if not the future of the country, in their hands.

One of them is Sufi Muhammad, a militant jailed for six years in 2002, after leading thousands of Pakistani Taliban to fight against allied forces in Afghanistan.

The other man is Maulana Fazlullah and Sufi Muhammad's son-in-law. Fazlullah is the leader of a splinter Taliban group in Pakistan's Swat Valley, and is known as the "Radio Mullah" for broadcasting his message of jihad across the airwaves.

He's fond of riding a white horse and launching execution raids.

"He was a school dropout who had no future and finally found some meaning in life when he joined Sufi Muhammad and gained prominence," says a Pakistani journalist and author Zahid Hussein, who has followed both men for years.

He says Pakistan's government thinks it can work with Sufi Muhammad, who they see as more moderate.

The government has chosen to cut a deal with Muhammad to impose strict Islamic or Sharia law in Swat.

It comes after a ruthless campaign of terror by the Taliban that included beheadings and torching schools.

Muhammad is being hailed as a hero in Swat for bringing a break in the violence.

The regional government in Swat is hoping Muhammad can win the people and isolate hard-liners in the Taliban.

But to win a permanent peace, Muhammad needs to convince his own son-in-law to lay down his guns.

"They believe Sufi Muhammad has enough support base to persuade his son-in-law to give up his arms, which is not going to happen," points out Hussein.

The Pakistan government is gambling Muhammad will bring a moderate influence to Swat. Analysts warn that could backfire badly.

The Pakistani government may think it can divide the father and son-in-law and speak to them separately.

But the fear is they will answer with one voice.