Is Assam heading for turmoil again?

Guwahati: It's almost a month since the peace process broke down but there is no initiative yet from the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), New Delhi or civil society in Assam to break the deadlock.

The ULFA, a separatist group fighting for an independent Assamese homeland since 1979, says it is ready for negotiations although it continues to adopt a belligerent posture.

The Centre believes in the might of its military to crush the rebels - a strategy that has failed to eliminate insurgency in the northeast during the past six decades.

Civil society in Assam is not cohesive and lacks vision unlike the Naga Hoho in Nagaland or the Apunba Lup in Manipur that has the mandate of the masses when it comes to issues that affects the common people.

"Guns and bullets can never help in bringing back peace. We need serious political negotiations," says Atanu Bhuyan, editor of the mass circulation Dainik Batori, an Assamese daily.

The Indian Army is now engaged in a massive operation against the ULFA after New Delhi last month called off the ceasefire, accusing the outfit of stepping up attacks and extortions.

The peace talks formally broke down earlier this month after the People's Consultative Group (PCG) - the ULFA-chosen civil society team - pulled out of the peace process, criticising New Delhi for calling off the truce.

There were three rounds of talks between the PCG and the Centre. The talks were deadlocked with the ULFA demanding the release of five of their jailed leaders as a precondition to holding direct talks with the Government.

The Government wanted a commitment in writing from the ULFA leadership, which the rebel group refused to give.

"It is in this kind of a deadlock that civil society should have played a major role to broker peace but it failed to do so," says Arun Nath, a retired police official. Analysts blame New Delhi for the breakdown of dialogue.

"There is no point blaming the ULFA alone as it is still an outlawed group. Hence the government should have shown restraint and not called off the ceasefire," an analyst said.

The ULFA too bungled. It carried out extortions and even killed a tea planter for not paying up. That led to the resumption of military operations last month.

But the Army goofed up by randomly harassing civilians in the name of anti-insurgency operations and the pendulum swung in favour of the ULFA when hundreds took to the streets to protest the high-handedness of security forces.

That the army did actually resort to rights violations was proved when Major Gen NC Marwah, general-officer-commanding (GOC) the 2nd Mountain Division, apologised last week when a farmer was picked up by soldiers on charges of being an ULFA suspect and later admitted to hospital with serious injuries.

"I think Saikia (Nipul Saikia, the farmer) was not treated properly and so we have ordered a court of inquiry. I would like to assure you that the guilty would be punished," the GOC says.

It is time New Delhi puts on the thinking cap and does some serious planning to get ULFA back to the negotiating table. Or else Assam will continue to be in turmoil.