New Delhi: India's economic growth rate in the current financial year has been estimated at 4.9 per cent, a faster pace than in the previous year, mainly on an improved performance in the agriculture and allied sectors.
"The growth in GDP during 2013-14 is estimated at 4.9 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13," according to advanced estimates released on Friday by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The CSO had lowered growth for 2012-13 to 4.5 per cent in its revised estimates from an earlier provisional forecast of 5 per cent.
For 2013-14, the CSO has projected a growth rate of 4.6 per cent in agriculture and allied sectors, up from 1.4 per cent a year earlier. Manufacturing, however, is expected to register a contraction of 0.2 per cent in this financial year compared with growth of 1.1 per cent in the previous year.
The latest estimate of 4.9 per cent for 2013-14 implies that the pace of economic expansion improved in the second half, given that GDP grew 4.6 per cent in the April-September period. According to the advance estimates, the services sector, including finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors, is likely to grow 11.2 per cent this year compared with 10.9 per cent in 2012-13.
Mining and quarrying is likely to contract 1.9 per cent, compared with a 2.2 per cent decline in production a year ago. Growth in construction is likely to improve to 1.7 per cent from 1.1 per cent in 2012-13. According to the CSO's advance estimates, growth in electricity, gas and water production is likely to improve to 6 per cent in 2013-14 from 2.3 per cent in 2012-13.
The trade, hotel, transport and communication sectors are projected to grow by 3.5 per cent, as against 5.1 per cent in the previous financial year. Community social and personal services growth would be better at 7.4 per cent, compared with 5.3 per cent previously. The CSO releases advance GDP estimates before the end of the financial year to enable the government to formulate various estimates for inclusion in the Budget.
Per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is likely to attain a level of Rs 39,961 as compared to the first revised estimate for the year 2012-13 of Rs 38,856. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.8 per cent as against the previous year's estimate of 2.1 per cent, CSO said.
Per capita income at current prices during 2013-14 is estimated to be Rs 74,920 compared with Rs 67,839 during 2012-13, a rise of 10.4 per cent. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), an indicator of investment, is forecast at Rs 32.2 lakh crore at current prices as against Rs 30.7 lakh crore in 2012-13.
At constant (2004-05) prices, GFCF is estimated at Rs 20.1 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs 20.0 lakh crore. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 28.5 per cent and 32.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4 per cent and 33.9 per cent, respectively in 2012-13. The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices has gone down from 2.6 per cent in 2012-13 to 2.1 per cent in 2013-14, the statement added.
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