New Delhi: Rafeeq, who drives an autorickshaw in East Delhi for livelihood is not sure if he is going to vote for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) this time. He claims that in Delhi Assembly polls, he actively campaigned for the AAP and got more than 500 votes for the party candidate in Patparganj assembly seat. He is also a small time auto union leader.
Rafeeq feels that Arvind Kejriwal has betrayed them in his eagerness to enter the national politics. He said, "We voted for him to take revenge on Sheila Dikshit, who made life miserable for auto drivers in Delhi. He had promised us the Moon. But he resigned in less than two months. What is the use of voting for his party again? They are not interested in governance. It is a dharna party. This time, either I will vote for the Congress or just stay away from voting."
Rafeeq echoes the sentiments of many other auto drivers like him who vociferously supported the AAP in the Delhi Assembly elections. It does not mean that all of them have changed their mind in the past two months.
Sudheer, a security guard disagrees. He says that the AAP is still the best political party and it will do well if voted to power with a clear majority. Speaking to IBNLive, he said, "Both the Congress and the BJP have joined hands to defame and defeat Kejriwal. He is an honest man. He wants to help poor people and end corruption. We can't get disillusioned with him overnight. Let's give him more time."
One comes across mixed opinion on the AAP in all seven Lok Sabha seats in the national capital. Some are totally disillusioned with the AAP and planning to back the BJP or the Congress. Some are confused. They want to wait for some more time to decide. Others are still hopeful about the AAP.
It is a well known fact that the 15-year-long Sheila Dikshit rule in Delhi had become arrogant and complacent in its last term. The lower sections of the society which formed its core vote bank dumped the Congress in anger and embraced the AAP, which offered them some hope. Its promises of free water, subsidised power etc also attracted a large number of middle class voters largely BJP supporters in the Assembly elections.
But the situation has now changed. Some of its one-time hardcore fans are questioning the way the AAP is moving. They feel that the AAP won't be able to make much of a difference at the national level and they will have to choose their candidates and the party carefully in the Lok Sabha elections.
Even though the AAP won 28 Assembly seats in the 2013 December Assembly elections, it actually came first only in the New Delhi seat. The BJP, which won 32 seats, came first in the remaining 6 seats. The AAP won most of its seats by a slender margin and the BJP won many seats by a bigger margin.
The AAP is facing several other problems this time. The party is not united like the last time. Some of its leaders are upset with the leadership. Some of its MLAs are also not very active. Some leaders have quit the party in protest. It is also facing a huge shortage of volunteers who can mobilise votes by doing door to door campaign.
During the Assembly elections, thousands of volunteers from others parts of India had come to Delhi to help the AAP. This time, not many have come. Most of them are either mobilizing the support for the AAP in their respective states or staying away from campaigning.
According to Delhi Congress leaders many AAP leaders have expressed their desire to join the Congress. DPCC spokesman Mukesh Sharma claims that thousands of AAP members have decided to send their AAP caps back to Arvind Kejriwal. He says some AAP leaders are also in touch with the Congress. The BJP is also making similar claims.
Constituency-wise scenario in Delhi
The manner in which AAP tickets were distributed in Delhi has angered many workers and other aspirants. They are unhappy with the candidature of journalists Ashutosh from Chandni Chowk, Ashish Khetan from New Delhi, Jarnail Singh from West Delhi an Raj Mohan Gandhi from East Delhi. Even the candidature of its MLA Rakhi Birla has also angered party workers in North-West Delhi seat.
Mahatma's Gandhi's grandson Raj Mohan Gandhi has not been able to reach out to the voters effectively. He is not familiar with the constituency and not even getting enough backing from the party. There are no signs of his campaigning in many parts of East Delhi Lok Sabha seat. On the contrary, the sitting MP Sandeep Dikshit of the Congress is running an effective canvassing. If AAP loses its core vote (slums and lower class) to the Congress, Dikshit can even spring a surprise by winning the seat for the third consecutive term.
In New Delhi Lok Sabha seat, sitting MP Ajay Maken of the Congress is also hopeful of retaining his seat. He says that the defeat in Assembly elections is a thing of the past and the fight is between him and the BJP's Meenakshi Lekhi. Some argue that not fielding retired IPS officer Kiran Bedi from New Delhi may go against the BJP as she had better chances of winning.
Chandni Chowk is a keenly watched seat, where Union Telecom minister Kapil Sibal is seeking his third straight term. Sibal is facing Ashutosh of the AAP and Delhi BJP chief Dr Harshvardhan.
Even though Ashutosh is campaigning effectively, there are no clear signs of the AAP winning this seat. Two Assembly seats in the constituency Ballimaran and Matia Mahal have a huge Muslim population. If the AAP fails to get them, Ashutosh stands no chance against Sibal and Harshvardhan. Local Congress and BJP leaders claim that the actual fight is between only Sibal and Harshvardhan and the AAP is a distant third.
In West Delhi, 'shoe thrower' journalist Jarnail Singh has also failed to launch an effective campaign. His BJP opponent Pravesh Verma claims that the fight is between him and the Congress. Sajjan Kumar's younger brother Ramesh Kumar is seeking a re-election from here.
In reserved seat of North West Delhi, Rakhi Birla is taking on sitting MP Krishna Tirath of the Congress and Udit Raj of the BJP. But, her candidature has not gone down well with many AAP backers. Unfazed Rakhi Birla is leading her campaign with some trusted AAP volunteers. Udit Raj has an 'outsider' tag and Tirath is considered an ineffective MP. These things may help Birla. But, it is not going to be an easy job.
The AAP is fighting a tough battle in the remaining North-East Delhi and North-West Delhi seats. The Congress has re-nominated its sitting MPs also from these seats.
Surveys predict massive loss for AAP
Many pre-poll surveys conducted by various media houses are also showing a huge decline the AAP vote base. According to AC Nielsen survey for ABP News, in January the AAP had 55 per cent vote share. The BJP had 29 per cent and a mere 9 per cent for the Congress in January. By its February poll, those numbers had shifted to 49 per cent for AAP, 30 per cent for BJP and 14 per cent for Congress. The March poll suggests that AAP's vote share would be 34 per cent and the BJP's 32 per cent, while the Congress would get 28 per cent of the votes.
The AAP may not be able to retain its existing vote share if it does not enthuse its voters and followers in the next one week. If AAP loses Delhi, it will be very difficult for this 'unique experiment' in Indian politics to survive in the coming days.
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