The mammoth seven-phased Lok Sabha elections will draw to a close on Sunday with the remaining 59 constituencies going to polls across seven states and one union territory. As the fate of the candidates and political parties gets sealed, India will gear up for the verdict in four days. However, before the final outcome, the exit polls on Sunday will give an early indication of the results.
This time, News18.com will bring to you the much awaited News18 Exit poll — a deep dive into the Indian elections with a detailed analysis of voter mood, trends and factors that defined the world’s largest democratic exercise.
An immersive coverage of the exit poll will begin on CNN-News18 and News18.com at 4 pm on May 19. The numbers and figures, however, will only be discussed after voting concludes for the last phase in the evening when the Election Commission gives the go ahead for airing the exit poll.
News18 exit poll has been conducted by Ipsos, world’s top international pollster that boasts a solid track record of predicting the electoral outcomes of several elections around the world with accuracy.
To envisage the number of seats likely to be won by each of the Political Parties (or alliances) contesting the general election, total 199 Parliamentary Constituency were selected out of 543 constituencies across 28 states of India.
Within the parliamentary constituencies, 796 assembly constituencies were selected, and then 4776 individual polling station areas were selected for conducting interviews. In each polling station, around 25 voters were randomly selected depending on the terrain and voter turnouts in that particular polling station. Total 1,21,542 voters were interviewed from 199 parliamentary constituency.
The News18 exit poll survey was conducted on the Election Day in all seven phases of the polling. The interviewing process started when the polls opened and continued throughout the day until polls close to ensure better representation of the voters, coming in at different time cluster for voting.
Each polling booth was covered for one hour, by three interviewers. They then moved to next polling booth. All interviews were conducted using Computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) devices.
To overcome prejudice/response bias, election symbol including party name of key parties contesting in respective constituency were shown in one screen, without being the screen gets scrolled. When voting related questions were asked, a virtual polling booth scenario was created, wherein a data capturing device was handed to therespondent on which they were allowed to mark the party, they had voted for.
The questionnaire was translated into vernacular language which is mainly spoken in the respondents’ State. Data were weighted to reflect the constituency profile on age, gender, caste, religion and voter turnout.
The coverage of the News18 exit poll will continue till the day of counting on May 23. This time, with a large number of votes being tallied against paper slips generated by voter-verified paper audit trail machines (VVPATs), the counting is expected to continue well into the night.
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