There is no easy way out of this war—for Russia, Ukraine or NATO. The war in Ukraine has thrown surprises at all three in the last 17 months. Russia did not see its “special military operation” raging beyond a few weeks, Ukraine has been getting a bloody nose all through faltering Western support, and the West’s Ukraine experiment — while being bloody and expensive — has no up-to-scratch gains to show for the quantum of weapons dispatched.
In fact, what seemed like a bouquet of missiles, rocket launchers and tanks has morphed into a wreath on the graves of more than a conservative estimate of 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers, most of whom fought ill-equipped and without air cover. With the loss of these men, Ukraine lost some of its best and most-trained soldiers and has since been relying increasingly on a mix of young and old conscripts who are stepping into the battlefield with just a few weeks of training.
While these facts have existed throughout the past year, Western media has taken a while to voice these realities bluntly. A Wall Street Journal report scathingly admits, “Western military knew that Kyiv did not have enough training and weapons — from shells to combat aircraft — to dislodge Russian troops,” before it launched its counteroffensive. This is interesting because Ukraine was pressured to carry on anyway. WSJ states that the West hoped that “Ukrainian courage and ingenuity would win.” That’s a patronising way to describe the civilians that were turned into cannon fodder. The WSJ report goes on to say that they believed that “Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day,” but adds, “they haven’t. Deep and deadly minefields, extensive fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block significant advances by Ukrainian troops.”
The West knew this would be the case all along. The “fight till the last man standing” is a particularly convenient motto for the West when it does not have to deal with the caskets of the fallen.
A New York Times report mentions how “older, less motivated” recruits replacing young soldiers are lacking discipline and questioning the word of their commanders. “Youth not only means better physical prowess, but younger soldiers are less likely to question orders,” says the report. As more men above the age of 40 enter the ranks, the problem of ‘indiscipline’ will only worsen for the Ukrainians who are fighting through a bloody stalemate.
This is not to say that the Russian side is not taking heavy and needless losses, but it has a greater capacity to play the meat grinder tactic while stashing away a larger trained army to mount powerful offensive campaigns. It is also technologically superior despite Western assistance to Ukraine. When it comes to electronic warfare, the NYT reports that Russian abilities outmatch Ukraine’s. This is clear from the impact of Russian Lancet drones on the Ukrainian psyche. Not only is the Russian drone powerful, but it is near-impossible to detect. Moreover, it says, “Russian forces can detect cellphone signals and jam GPS and radio frequencies, and they are often looking for Starlink Wi-Fi routers to target with their artillery.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive which was delayed into the summer, has been flailing in the face of layers of Russian fortification at enemy lines. Dozens of Western Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles were destroyed just days into the counteroffensive. Ukraine’s air defences have not been bolstered by Western support as was hoped, especially of the Patriot systems. These are stationary and Ukraine has only two, one of which was reportedly damaged in May. And this is showing in Ukraine’s continued vulnerability to air attacks. In a night of recent Russian attacks in Odesa on July 21, Ukraine could shoot down only five of 19 cruise missiles— a strikingly low success rate.
The emerging stalemate at the frontlines has turned Ukraine to bigger and bolder attacks inside Russian territory and in Crimea. Attacks on the Kerch Bridge to Crimea and multiple drone attacks as far as Moscow serve as Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s reminder to Vladimir Putin that Ukraine is still in the fight and will bring the war to Russia’s doorstep rather than taking a step back.
Ukraine has vowed to take all its territory back including Crimea which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Russia holds 20 percent of Ukrainian territory even as Ukraine reclaimed a few villages in its counteroffensive. Now there’s a question of why Ukraine has not pierced through the enemy despite Western backing. This expectation is itself a product of misleading narratives in the run-up to justify billions of dollars of military aid to Ukraine. Western weaponry has been transferred in tranches and not all at once. This worked as long as Ukraine was fighting a defensive war which it got better at over time, but the counteroffensive has proved to be a different ball game. Going in with tanks and no air cover has been disastrous, especially as Russian soldiers planted landmines, dragon teeth and dug wide trenches to deter the assault. Ukraine has been demanding F-16 fighter aircraft to counter Russian air superiority, but the F-16s are not arriving anytime soon and training of Ukrainian pilots is beginning only in August. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, says that it will take “months and months”.
The scramble for these fighter jets shows that the war is set to continue well into 2024. The West, and the US especially, have not given up on Ukraine despite apprehensions about the escalation with Russia, a poor Ukrainian counteroffensive, or the prospect of an ammunition crunch back home. The gains have been bumper— Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, Germany’s romance with the Nord Stream Pipelines is over, American shipments of LNG are arriving at Europe’s shores, most of Eastern Europe is firmly under the American spell, and the list goes on. But these are backhanded victories. Anything short of an ostensible Ukrainian victory is off-limits for the Biden Administration as the 2024 election year approaches. Ukraine needs to be a strategic and political victory for President Biden. It may somewhat politically redeem him after the botched-up withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. However, this victory is nearly impossible in the current circumstances. The second-best option then is a prolonged war that buys enough time until the November 2024 US elections.
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