Guwahati: Thirty eight days after voting got over in Assam, counting day is here. Exit polls have unanimously predicted a huge win for the BJP but there have been news reports from local channels which suggest the fight could be closer than what it appears to be. So here are the five possible scenarios which can emerge after counting is over:
Total strength: 126
Magic figure: 64
1) More than 65 seats to BJP+: It is game, set and match for the alliance of BJP+AGP+BPF. The state would see the first BJP led government. Sorbananda Sonowal becomes the chief minister. The downward swing of Congress continues. Badruddin Ajmal’s dream of playing kingmaker goes kaput.
2) BJP+ alliance gets between 55 to 65 seats and Congress + gets 45-55: The game is in governor’s court. AIUDF with about 10-odd seats would be in a position to form government with Congress. A dream situation for horsetraders, in such a situation Independents would become vital and AGP will have a hard time keeping their folks together.
3) Congress gets 55+ seats and BJP alliance gets 45-50: The grand old man of Assam Tarun Gogoi would script a victory which would become the test case of all psephologists. Congress still maintains this is what is going to happen. King maker Badruddin Ajmal could be the all-important deputy CM
4) The regional parties, AGP & AIUDF, performs exceedingly well: Prafulla Mahanta’s dream of becoming chief minister yet again could become a reality. The political gravepine of Dispur has it that Congress would support a government of smaller parties from outside to keep BJP at bay
5) Party wins, CM face loses: It was a tough fight for both the chief minister and the challenger. While Tarun Gogoi faced Jorhat MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, Sonowal had Rajib Lochan Pegu, a sitting MLA with strong presence among Missing tribe. What if their parties win and they lose? An outside possibility of BJP government led by Himanta Biswasarma or a Congress government led by Paban Singh Ghatwar, cannot be ruled out.
In the two phased election both BJP+ and Congress had their days. While the BJP performed very well in Upper Assam which went to poll the first phase, the overwhelming majority of states 34% Muslim population voted in favour Congress in the second phase. It seems the biggest loser could be AIUDF, a party whose very existence is dependent on Bengali Muslim community of Assam.
Political permutation and combination which has become the staple of any discussion in Assam for the last couple of months is likely to end by 12 noon on Thursday. But would state chose ‘Poriborton’ or continuity, remains the question in everybody’s mind till then!
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