Expert Talk: Pak paranoid about India

By Mandeep Bajwa

CNN-IBN brings in an elite panel of security experts to analyse the expanding web of terror in and around India.

Pakistan has been extremely paranoid about India and India’s growing economic and military power and its status as a nation on the world stage. They have always sought to find ways to keep India’s growing power in check.

Through conventional means they cannot really overpower India because of India’s superior strength and that has improved as was shown in the three wars they fought with India, which ultimately led to the dismemberment of their country. So they were looking for unconventional means of asserting their supremacy over India.

"The Pakistanis were able to infiltrate a large number of guerillas into Kashmir armed with the arms left over from the Afghan war and used those funds to sustain them."

For the ISI, the Afghan war was a God-send for two reasons. One - they were able to divert all resources towards their operations in Punjab, in J&K and in other parts of India. Secondly, they got much needed experience of running unconventional guerilla groups within the target country to take on the conventional armed forces of that country and they used the experience to good effect.

First through our own policies we gave them an opening in Punjab, which they exploited to the hilt but the Khalistan movement was never very popular nor did it have the means to sustain itself through popular support.

So therefore the Indian state helped by the people of Punjab were able to get the better of the Khalistan forces and their Pakistani superiors but in J&K it was a different story.

The Pakistanis were able to infiltrate a large number of guerillas into Kashmir armed with the arms left over from the Afghan war and used those funds to sustain them. Of course there were certain mistakes made by the Indian state also that Pakistan was able to use to carry on a guerilla war against the India.

On military training camps in Pakistan

There are literally dozens of trading camps both in Pakistan occupied Kashmir and in Pakistan itself. After 9/11 and the US crackdown on terrorists in Afghanistan, there was growing pressure on the Pakistan government to wind up those camps and in a cosmetic exercise they did wind up those camps and claimed that the terror machine has been dismantled and they are no longer in the business of supporting terrorists or freedom fighters as they call them.

"The ISI is in full control not only of the camps and the infiltration, but is running those terrorist and guerilla groups within India."

But that’s not true. What is actually a camp? It is only a collection of tents and maybe a couple of temporary buildings and maybe some area for training. So they are able to move those camps to other locations and there are literally dozens of camps all over the countryside in PoK and in Pakistan and training is in full swing.

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There is not let up and infiltration is also on, aided and abetted by the Pakistan Army. The ISI is in full control not only of the camps and the infiltration but running those terrorist and guerilla groups within India.

Pakistan is definitely continuing to spawn terror. It has a big stake because it has resolved to defeat India through a war of a thousand cuts and they are not only sponsoring terrorist groups in J&K, Punjab and other parts of India but also carrying on a very strong propaganda of war against India.

For instance they had put up and promoted these fake websites on the Internet - of separatist movements that did not exist on ground at all. It seemed to people that everyone in India, every state, every region, every community is clamouring to get out of the country.

The reality was that these movements or organisations did not exist. They were just not present on the ground. But the impression given to western analysts was that India was under siege from within.

On every front the Pakistani propaganda machine, controlled by the ISI has been vociferous against India and they sponsor all these political interventions against India not only in the US Congress in the British parliament but also in the United Nations and other world bodies.

They had been agitating against India on all grounds even to the extent than an Indian being put up for the job of UN Secretary General has met with great opposition from Pakistan. So their propaganda machine is in full swing. In every sphere they have sought to make propaganda against India and contain India’s rise.

Their terror machine is targeting India’s sunrise industries like BPO sector, science and technology and every sphere where India is pulling ahead. But in the end it is all propaganda it doesn’t work. But the Pakistani effort is there and they are putting a lot of sustained effort into their propaganda effort against India.

Who has the upper hand?

The Pakistani threat to India on the terror front is very formidable and we must take all steps to contain that. We need to wage an all out war against terror and against propaganda that it targeting this country and there is no room for half measures anymore.

"We need to wage an all out war against terror and against propaganda that it targeting India and there is no room for half measures anymore. "

That is what is the message of past few months - the Mumbai blasts, the Malegaon blasts and other activities that have come to notice say we must take this very seriously otherwise we will be back to where we began.

On terrorism in Punjab

The Khalistan movement did not have much support. They depended on the power of the gun and therefore through the ISI help, material help, funding and propaganda efforts, they were able to sustain themselves for a while and then the movement collapsed.

The people of Punjab and security forces are to be thanked for the effort they made. After the end of the hot Khalistan campaign, the militant campaign, now the focus is on the propaganda.

Propaganda on the Internet, propaganda through various forums in the western world, through the US Congress where the Khalistanis have been successful in getting a few “Yes” Congressmen on their side and the British Parliament where they managed to get a few British MPs to sponsor their motions.

They have been approaching the Human Rights bodies like the UNPO, the unrepresented nation peoples’ organizations. I don’t see much future in the Khalistan movement as a violent secessionist movement but their propaganda value remains formidable.

(Mandeep Bajwa is a Chandigarh-based security expert with www.orbat.com)