With the Doklam standoff between India and China entering its second month, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval travels to Beijing this week for the BRICS NSAs meeting. Will Doval be able to resolve the standoff? What are the five possible scenarios that could play out in the days and weeks ahead, if Doval fails to calm the waters?.
SCENARIO 1: Full-blown military conflict. Diplomacy fails. China decides to militarily pushback the Indian troops from Doklam. Would likely result in significant casualties to both sides.
Probablity: Unlikely given the stakes involved.
SCENARIO 2: Diplomacy works. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval meets with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi & hammers out an honourable solution. Troops of both countries decide to withdraw and China gives an assurance that they will not build a road in Doklam.
Probablity: Unlikely given the public posturing taken by China on the issue.
SCENARIO 3: Chinese refuse to meet Doval. Stand Off is prolonged till the winter months when the harsh weather will force both sides to retreat & rethink.
Probablity: Possible since Xi Jinping cant be seen ‘losing face’ ahead of the 19th party congress of the CPC.
SCENARIO 4: China attacks some other part of the LAC where they are at an advantage. China says the entire LAC is disputed.
Probability: Unlikely as this could lead to rapid escalation of the situation.
SCENARIO 5: Bhutan does some quiet diplomacy with both Beijing and New Delhi and thrashes out an honourable compromise.
Probability: Likely since Bhutan is obsessed with their National Happiness Index. Last thing they want is a war on their soil.
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