Active Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra could top 3 lakh by April 4 with Pune district recording the highest number of active infections (61,125) followed by Nagpur (47,707) and Mumbai (32,927), said the state health department. Several districts are likely to face a shortage in treatment facilities. Nagpur and Thane could be among the most-affected district unless they amp up their facilities, it said. The death toll could also rise above 64,000 in next 11 days.
Projections of the public health department were based on the current 1% weekly average growth rate of infections, and has been shared with all districts in the state.
Using a cumulative case fatality rate of 2.27%, the department predicted 64,613 possible mortalities against a total caseload of 28,24,382, indicating a projection of up to 1,000 deaths a day over the next two weeks, said a TOI report.
Maharashtra on Wednesday reported record 31,855 new coronavirus cases, its highest ever single-day spike since the outbreak of the pandemic. The total caseload of the state rose to 25,64,881 with 2,47,299 active cases and the death toll rose to 53,684 with 95 new fatalities.
According to the projections of the state health department, there are adequate numbers of non-oxygen beds, ICU beds and ventilators, but the state needs to be outfitted with nearly 4,000 more beds with oxygen support. Nagpur and Thane districts may not match up to the adequate number of Covid-19 beds unless they build up an inventory of beds in the thousands over the next few days, said principal health secretary Dr Pradeep Vyas.
A senior critical care physician said that the projections made by the health department were conservative projections as the state has added more than a lakh cases in the last 3-4 days. Currently, over 41% of active cases are in hospital, of which 8% are critical and 0.71% are on ventilator.
Vyas has said allocation of beds at dedicated Covid-19 hospitals and health care centres must be based on clinical condition of the patient and no other consideration. Those who have recovered and have no fever, cough for three days and have more than 95% oxygen saturation should be promptly shifted to stand-down Covid Care Centres, he said, adding that there should be four-hourly, six-minute walk tests and checking of oxygen and temperature of the patients.
Thane collector Rajesh Narvekar said that the district administration had begun the task of amping up bed facilities at hospitals and at least 3,000 beds will be added in the next 4 days. Nagpur municipal commissioner Radhakrishnan B said that about 250 new beds were added in private hospitals in the last 2 days, and over 90 beds were made available at the government medical college, and another 45 beds will be added at government hospitals.
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